2025 HOR Special Elections Fastest Way to Stop the Madness

Former AZ State Legislator Daniel Hernandez has become the first big name to file to run in the Special Election. Hernandez is an openly gay, Jewish Hispanic male. He is a former staffer of Gabby Giffords. He is also one of the few Democrats who has openly supported Israel. His campaign raised over $100k in 24 hours after announcing his candidacy.

One of his opponents is expected to be Adelita Grijalva, the daughter of Rep Raúl Grijalva, whose passing has resulted in this special election.

It is not clear if a Republican will bother running in the southern Arizona district that is more than 2:1 registered Democrat. Interesting note, in 2024 President Trump narrowly carried the district, however, with more than 10% of the population believed to be illegals and more than 35% of the population non-native born Americans, it is unlikely a Republican can run a successful campaign down there right now.

 

"People in the Trump administration are reportedly considering pulling the UN ambassador nomination for Elise Stefanik because they're worried about Republicans' narrow majority in the House."

A lot of federal workers and military in her red district

 

Rather obvious that they're afraid of losing her sear in the House not to mention the seats in Florida in which special elections will be held next week.

 

“You got to see this guy” and then launches into a physical imitation of the reporter. I don’t know why I bothered even responding since you don’t have any intention of actually looking at things impartially.

What I don’t get is why you care if Trump mocked a crippled journalist. You’ve shown no hesitation and proudly stand behind making fun of and insulting other groups on this board. Figured you’d own it and say it was funny.

 

FL1 and FL6 were not competitive. Petronius and Fine were easy wins for MAGA. Not surprising. Makes me wonder if Stefanik gets a redo.

Florida Special Election Results 2025

 

Probably not. Although Stefanik won her last several elections by a significant margin historically her district has been a swing district unlike the Florida 1st and 6th districts which have solidly red for decades. I don't think Trump and the Pubs would be willing to risk an upset.

The results in the Florida 1st are interesting. Although Petronis won by an approximately 15% margin (Gaetz and Trump carried the district by over 30%), Valimont carried Escambia County the first time a Democrat has done so since 1992. On a per capita basis Escambia County probably has more veterans than any other county in Florida. Musk's chainsaw approach of cutting federal jobs imposed a double whammy on vets. First, roughly 30% of the federal workforce are veterans and secondly DOGE's cuts in the VA will undoubtedly have a negative impact on services to veterans. While veterans are probably more conservative/Republican than the electorate as whole Musk have been instrumental in flipping that demographic to the Dems in not entirely at least significantly cutting into the Republican margin.