2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

Excellent prediction Jared!

 

Thoughts from Dickie V

 

Back to back wins against Auburn and a very hot Arkansas team will be just as shocking as our loss at an ice cold A&M. Still this is our best path to the tourney.

 

Still a long way to go. I think we need 20 wins.

 

Thanks - I think the number before yesterday was in the 30s, so it's nice to already be close to 50/50 chance to make the tourney. I also recall the chance for winning and auto bid were next to zero. Now.......?

 

So many scenarios, 3 regular season should get us in or if we go 2-2, the 2 wins must be Arky and UK (or they might say beating Arky and UK merely makes up for the 2 ugly losses and leaves us on the bubble and needing to make a splash in Tampa). UGA, Vandy and 1 SEC tourney win will likely leave us on the bubble and we might need help elsewhere. 2 tourney wins should ice the NCAA invite.

We seem to have this conversation every stinkin year.

 

If we end up 10-8 in the SEC we are a lock.
Beating Arky is no lock however, and a win vs UK is remote at best. (Even at home.)

 

That game at Vandy is going to be VERY tough too.

 

I think if we go 3-1 over the next four we are in regardless of what happens in Tampa. We don’t have many Q1 wins, but 3-1 would give us Q1 wins against Ohio State, Auburn, and Arkansas/Kentucky. Those are much better wins than a bubble team who beat #74 on the road to get a Q1 win.

 

I agree.

 

Read in the paper today that the ACC only has one team in the NET top 35. SEC is #2 conference per KenPom.

That could imply that the SEC gets 7 slots. We are currently 2 spots in NET behind MissState for number 7. Which is weird, as we have better numbers than them in each column.

Thus, maybe our best hope is (a) SEC gets 7 and (b) we're 7. Instead of comparing vs. the rest of the field. Dunno.

 

If the team beat Arky at home, we would be well on our way. That would be another quality win following up after Auburn.

Of course this would be the 18th win, so also this game is pretty much necessary if we are going to win 20 anyway. It is not “impossible” to get in the tourney without it (could still get 20 wins by beating UGA, Vandy, and a SECT game) but it’s still almost an Auburn situation where it’s sort of hard to see them getting there without this one added to the resume. I’d say if we get it, only a total collapse would leave us out. Could possibly even get there with 19 wins if Arky is one of those wins (ditto for UK game). But seems like no chance of getting in with a season total of 19 wins unless 1 of those wins is Arky or UK for a high Q1 win. Hopefully we take care of business at home here, then get 20 or 21 to not really have to sweat selection Sunday at all. One can hope, but we’ve been here before lol.

 

Palm has Florida in and Lunardi has Florida as the 8th team out. That’s a huge difference.

Meanwhile Lunardi has Michigan in with a 14-11 record.

 

This Arkansas game looks to be another huge game for Florida. If they find a way to win tonight, they'll really he in good shape to get in the tournament. A loss and once again Florida will find itself in an uphill climb. Back to back wins against Auburn and Arkansas would be huge. Not sure they can beat UK, making this maybe their best shot at beating a top 20 team.

 

they will likely still have to win 2-3 more. But without tonight it becomes a really tough task. Would need a win against UK, or a run in the second tournament with no slip ups at Vandy or UGA.

 

I agree. Win tonight and 2 more in the regular season and get to 10-8 in the SEC and we're a lock imo. Win tonight and only 1 more regular season vs UGA or Vandy and I think they'll need to win 1 in the SECt. Of course beat UK and 1 more in the regular season will get the Gators in as well. However, if lose tonight and vs UK, but beat UGA and Vandy, may need 2 wins in the SECt season depending on what happens with other bubble teams making tonight's game a really big one.

 

NIT. This season is over!

 

I wouldn’t say season is over, but White has had no sustained success in the SEC tournament so 3-0 is mandatory to end the year and considering Auburn almost took over our arena I’m scared what Kentucky is going to do so that will only be a home game thanks to the Rowdies.