1st top 25 ranking of the year! [Update: Still at #24]

These kids and coaches have worked really hard to get to this point . . . and the job isn't finished yet.

Great news! Thanks!

 

Man. This put a huge smile on my face. This team deserves it.

 

Definitely earned.

 

Definitely deserve it. So much nicer to be ranked in Feb than earlier in the season, and we're trending baby we're trending

 

on a somewhat unrelated note, how is a 21-5 9-4 South Carolina team ranked #54 on kenpom? For comparison, a 17-9 Mich St tame is #15.

If this doesn't show how grossly underrated the SEC is or how flawed these formulas are... I don't know why they even bother. We're #27, which is a tad low but #54 with that record?

A pre-pubescent child could build a better algorithm

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

 

Let's give Bama a good game and stay in the conversation for another week.

 

Probably due to the recent loss to LSU (13-12) and a previous loss to fading Georgia...IMHO.

 

It is a funny outcome, but on its own doesn’t necessarily show any problem with the algorithm. Some teams are going to have records that seem off with their power rating by random chance.

They might have had a bad non conference schedule, but almost certainly this has a lot to do with margin of victory, which is the central stat that makes up the algorithms. Not all wins and losses are equal. Indeed, they seem to have had several wins against lower tier teams with small margins of victory, eg beating DePaul by 5, Charleston So by 4, and Ole Miss by 3, all at home. Then they’ve gotten absolutely drilled a couple times, at Bama by 27 and at Auburn by 40. Losing to LSU at home doesn’t help either.

 

Heck yeah! But if we don’t beat Bama they are going to drop us out regardless of if we put up a good battle. Voters are idiots and will just at the W or L.

 

Should be in

Florida Gators
After a secret ballot vote by the Bubble Watch staff, we are pleased to congratulate Florida on being named the Official Shot Volume Ambassador of 2024. Yes, other teams post even higher shot volumes than the Gators. (We see you, Texas A&M.) But Todd Golden's projected No. 8 seed really makes this stuff come alive thanks to merely average shooting. When your offense ranks No. 6 in the league for effective FG percentage, but you're ringing up 1.15 points per possession on the conference season, you are recording attempts in bunches. Well done, UF. (updated Feb. 17)

 

Pop the Champaign corks!

 

I love how we get our first ranking right before a road game against Alabama. lol

It’s cool… I have us penciled in for the huge upset anyway!

 

gotcha, didn't know that the algorithm weighed the margins so heavily, but that does make some sense then. thanks. Still only 5 losses in total, 3 are against quad 1 teams...but agree that LSU loss didn't help

 

Yeah unlike resume ratings, the algorithms treat margin of victory as a continuous variable. So the difference between a 1pt win and 1 pt loss is basically the same as the difference between a 19 pt win and a 21 pt win, each with a difference of 2 pts. The algorithms certainly aren’t perfect, but when they clash with predictions from poll rankings or records, I tend to side with the algorithms. Overall, the Vegas point spread is probably the best of the imperfect predictive measures we have.

 

got it, yes a little off at times but at least they take into account point differentials
Agree on the Vegas point spread. After all, that is what the refs target when calling the games

 

I like this a lot! I don’t understand it a bit, but I like it a lot.

 

Congrats Gators! Well deserved!!!