$1.7 B Short

I just don't see it. It wouldn't have surprised me at all if it happened over the last 2 years, but at this point I'd be wondering what indicators he's looking at. Outside of real wages and the wealth gap, all indicators are strong.

 

Is this the reason my stocks are in the toilet right now?

 

Isn’t that what was said in 08 though? I would imagine we bottom out as an economy sometime in the near future?

 

Yeeesh…90% of everything is a damn big bet. Serious stones.

 

Read TBS and saw the movie. Both wonderful. Instantly I felt some alarm from your post, but I don't follow this stuff closely enough to trust any instinct I have and so I don't know whether I should be alarmed or not

I do think to myself that because he nailed it one time, doesn't mean it can't happen again...but it also doesn't mean it will happen again. The housing crisis was kind of a unique situation at the time. But then again...

 

A lot of people in the real estate industry knew what was up in 08. Our old buddy @gatorknights (RIP) used to tell those stories all the time. Maybe there's some weird behind the scenes stuff happening we'll find out about in the future, but nothing seems teetering from an normal indicator standpoint. Maybe he's betting on the general state of the country and the disenfranchisement of the younger generation. I dunno.

 

Im guessing the list of things he didn’t see since 08 is very long. I have no idea but Home Depot reported good earnings on lower sales (price gouging I’m sure). Walmart earnings tomorrow with target and Lowe’s. Won’t those be better indicators than a bet?

 

The market doesn’t have to crash for him to make money. The price of the index funds just need to drop below the strike price minus the option fee.

What’s unclear to me from the story is whether the $1.5 billion is the number of shares times the strike price of the funds, or is it the value of the fee that he paid for the options. I’m guessing it’s the former, so he didn’t have to put up that amount of money.

It would be interesting to know the strike price, the option expiration date, and the option fee paid.

 

Might be possible if we had some idea on the date he did it. We just have to look for an option with a very high volume.

According to this table, the lowest strike price is $4355 versus a current price of $4404.

S&P 500 Index Options Prices - Barchart.com

 

didn't read everything. don't know what he & Buffet are "looking at", but P/E ratios by themselves are pointless. P/Es in relation to int rates are very important. 25 is supa high given int rates. But, that certainly can't be the whole story. China prob factors in heavily. regardless, Buffet's (& I guess this guy's) moves should give 1 pause.

 

no. these guys aren't reckless gamblers.

 

Back in like 2014 I heard an interview with Buffett where he said the Russell 2000 indicated stocks were very overpriced and he expected a serious correction. It never happened. If I had sold based on the Buffett interview, I would’ve missed out on a lot of games.