Thanks sfla. What your ex says that there are unknown unknowns in polling error must be true to some extent. I posted this study a while ago,...
Might this be that all that data is based on just one result, the general election of 2020?
Certainly I would never argue that markets are always rational, azcat. The problem is that nothing and no one are always rational. Like you point...
This article nicely lays out the argument for respecting prediction market prices, even if there are big bettors in them. First, the obvious...
Well, it’s difficult for me to square your first statement that I am entirely responsible for the misunderstanding and your later admission that...
This response confuses me, Okee. Either you are confusing me with another poster, or I have thus far done a terrible job expressing my views. I’m...
Any bet can be a good one if the price is low enough. I personally wouldn’t be too surprised to see Harris win, so a bet that pays 2 to 1 doesn’t...
I agree that there is no clearly obvious outcome that is causing this momentum, which makes for a fascinating study. This article explores four...
Even metaculus, which trades on bettor accuracy rather than money, has flipped to Trump. Whatever is causing this movement toward Trump, it is...
As I’ve posted before, FPI has a good track record with predictions, so this is nice to see. I’ll also state that FPI adjusts their ratings to...
You’re absolutely right, Ora, that the current market prices could be irrational. However, if the prices are obviously irrational, we have to...
I think we have two options: Either (1) the market is mistaken, offering everyone free money on the table, OR (2) bettors are suckers because the...
To the point: “To keep it simple for the State of Florida: it’s the First Amendment, stupid.”...
I get how tiring the whataboutisms are, but if you are going to claim to be pro free speech, it seems like you at least have to acknowledge the...
I actually linked this story on Wednesday in that thread, and all I got in response was one funny rating from 95.
It’s the exact same thing with the DeSantis vs Disney fiasco, and almost all the right leaning posters sided with Disney on that one. Simply...
I think you are underappreciating the power of prediction markets. You say there is no way to determine who is going to win the election, but you...
Good thread. These guys have been great to read during these traumatic events. Thanks to them.
This is possible too, enviro, but I would guess the strongest impact would be a negative one on voters of the party that seems out of the running....
More fascinating stuff, ora. If this is a concerted effort (and I don’t know that it is), my guess would be that it’s not intended to act as...
