I admire the work of the philosopher of science Karl Popper (hence the signature). His most famous contribution to his field was suggesting that...
First, I would suggest that anyone using terms like “enviro fascists” and “Chicom puppet party” shouldn’t be expected to fairly evaluate a...
Same murph. Hope to see him stronger next year.
Correct. Although this fact doesn’t change my analysis.
I believe he weights different polls differently based on their past accuracy but does not do a bias adjustment. Such an adjustment would be a...
If nobody cared about tax returns, why did that norm arise and get maintained for decades? If there is a 20% middle that can be influenced, it...
To be fair, I don’t think this adjustment is any more arbitrary than any other decision being made by any of the model builders. The magnitude and...
Ah, I don’t think he should be looking like a dufus for letting his model run the way he programmed it. He gave his reasons for the adjustment....
Thanks. You’re not so bad yourself.
Just to be clear, global warming is still totally a thing. Another Global Warming Record: Hottest Summer Ever
Maybe. However, we’ve seen the fall of an awful lot of norms lately. Eg Voters did not punish Trump when he refused to release his tax returns, or...
I wouldnt call them sheep, but I agree that if people were willing to leave the parties, they would better shape the parties toward beneficial...
Obviously a ton of people will just vote their party regardless of candidate, but hopefully enough voters care about this to force their hand.
From all the money we’ll be “taking in” from tariffs? Man, if Kamala had come up with this, she’d be getting raked over the coals for it. Rightly.
First-round pick Jac Caglianone has started to heat up, going 10-for-30 with six doubles and a triple this week. TWitM: Jac Caglianone heats up
You are correct on how betting odds are derived, but I think you are underestimating the amount of information that these odds convey. If it were...
I believe all successful political movements capture emotional momentum. “Yes we can”, “Make America great again”, and “Build back better” all...
This is also certainly possible. As well as some combination. Eg Trump seems to be able to say whatever comes into his head, but given that Harris...
Oh I should add one more possibility: since Kamala was thrust into the candidacy rather suddenly, it’s possible that her team is still generating...
I can only guess, but my best guess is that they believe that voting is determined more by emotions and vibes than policy specifics and that their...
