As I replied to you before, that the purpose of a market is to balance betting in no way precludes it from having utility in prediction. In fact,...
Indeed. Though one aspect of this story is all too predictable: “I was very impressed with him” Flatter Trump, and he will praise you. Criticize...
I’m sorry okie. If this sounded like another swipe, I worded my post poorly. And I also did so in whatever came across as the first swipe. What...
I see what you are saying, Okee. I do think that you are making a similar argument to mine when you say that pollsters are “guessing”. The same is...
There has long been some grave misunderstanding with what data like these mean. What these data do show: factors other than human activity...
Again, if all of this so obvious, why are the betting odds in Harris’ favor? Vox has a nice article describing the challenge of using past...
The Fahrenheit scale can go quite negative, so 98F isn’t close to double 59F. Converting to Kelvin, which does have an absolute zero, can help us...
Baugh has looked good every time he’s played. He comes in late and tears it up again today. Not a huge sample size, but he’s leading the team with...
i’ve explained in the past why it’s risky to employ intuitive corrections to algorithmic models. It was the case that Trump well over performed...
Thanks war, that makes sense.
I was thinking that this sounded like a an overly sensitive model, but the predicted popular vote shares are almost unchanged. Probably this is...
It’s definitely part of the point, and I agree that this is probably more common than not. In his great book, How to know a person, David Brooks...
Well, Jo, I don’t intend to convince you that voting Republican is the right decision. I certainly don’t intend to so myself, but these nation...
Frustrating.
I think I like a lot of libertarian positions at the national level, but often their candidates just seem crazy, pushing for things like hoarding...
Holy cow, that’s pretty bad. At least if the numbers implied by my internal polling of my own opinion are correct.
I think I know what you are saying Jo. Some people appear to have violated social compact to such an extent that they no longer deserve a hearing...
I won’t judge or fault anyone for ignorance. My ignorance would likely wouldn’t fit into 100 grand canyons. But I would say that everyone should...
If this is the place you’ve reached, then there is no point in you being here. How can one exchange ideas if they have vowed to stop listening? Or...
I don’t think I commented on that thread, but my take would have been a negative one. The same applies here. A cap of 10% is a sure fire way to...
