I don’t know, Bluke. I’m having trouble seeing the logic here. It would seem to me that Trump’s qualifications for president should have nothing...
Or she could simply say that supporting the peaceful transfer of power is more important than which individual gets elected, no matter how...
These are excellent points, Andy. You are absolutely right that there is no logical reason why the future must conform to the past. This is Hume’s...
Im not versed enough to speak to that asymmetry, but I do recall reading an analysis showing that including outliers improved the accuracy of...
Indeed there was no scientific polling back then. This knowledge was somehow mined from other sources. These other sources of knowledge, whatever...
This will indeed be an interesting question to pursue. Outlier polls are usually “wrong” in themselves, but polling aggregations are often...
This is the only proper answer, and it doesn’t really matter who is running or how dangerous they might be. The democratic system if candidate...
I think useless isn’t quite right. Markets are extremely good at aggregating diffuse knowledge. Prediction markets have likely been the best...
Rather than afoul, I’d use the term divergent. It’s clear these bettors aren’t agreeing with your assessment, but that in itself isn’t evidence of...
To be fair, there is definitely some of this running in the opposite direction as well. There is a curious phenomenon where many of us are acting...
I would likely be less embarrassed to intentionally entertain you, JMDZ, but I guess I can be happy to have accomplished this at all. :) You are...
Hearken not to the unnatural voice which tells you that the people of America, knit together as they are by so many cords of affection, can no...
It is not easy done, but it is possible that some bettors are trying move prices to get better odds. However, as long as the goal is to make...
Im guessing there won’t be much story here. First, I still haven’t evidence of manipulation. Mostly what we have is Trump’s odds going up, and...
You’re right exactly. They either both need to be blamed, or neither. But we can’t just pass off all of the Republicans on the Democrats without...
Even if you consider it a philosophy, this explanation completely absolves all democrats actions. Their “lawfare” is simply just the Republicans...
This is a philosophy that I cannot understand, 92. Fundamentally, you are arguing that you have no agency in your own decisions. The other side...
I personally think it’s a toss up also. The question is, what do we do when many others see it differently? I think it’s natural to assume the...
Ah well, I got nothing then. :oops:
Just to square this circle, it’s pretty clear that the mods moved @gatordavisl’s post to this thread after he posted it.
