War in Ukraine

Predictable. I think there is a certain reality that a final peace deal may have had to do this. But what would be the point of recognizing it, absent a peace deal? Trump just gives things away in favor of Russia, so what does Russia have to “negotiate”? Maybe the next phase of negotiation is for Krasnov to recognize unoccupied territories as Russian.

 

I can see that being a realistic price to pay for a peace settlement this year, so no harm in floating it as an incentive to make Russia give ground on other elements it finds intolerable, such as a security guarantee for what remains of Ukraine. However, any negotiator worth their salt would also mention that if we are unable to come to terms and have to continue supporting Ukraine's defense, then we will not feel so generous when Russia is in an even weaker political and economic position a year from now.

 

This is Day 90 of Trump’s 24 hours to end the war.

Trump saying the US is preparing to walk away.

Interpretation: the US doesn’t have the cards.

 

Russia is going to run out of SA-21's if this war keeps going.

Ukraine Figured Out How To Hit Russia’s S-400 Surface-to-air Missile System, 31 S-400 Batteries Destroyed In Ukraine War

That is bad news for Iran since they need to replace the SA-23's the Israelis destroyed with their F-35's. The SA-23's could not even detect them and they did not even get a shot off at the F-35's.

 

Well, Iran only has to necessarily replace those missiles if it’s more important to them to be assholes than it is to rebuild economic and political ties with the West. Since those missiles did exactly nothing to protect them from an Israeli strike anyway, I know what the smart choice seems like to me.

 

Lol, you can lie all you want, but we know you're a libbie

 

The only real surprise in this video/article is that Russia is now conducting conscription enforcement in Moscow, which it had been avoiding for the last three years.

Russia snatches men from gyms in Putin’s new conscription drive

 

Cannot speak for him although by your standards Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, two of the most conservative presidents in the last 90 years would be considered "libbies" not to mention Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush who were more moderate and were considered mainstream Republicans. From your post history it's reasonable to infer that you believe that anyone who is not a member of the Cult of the Donald is a "libbie".

 

More reasonable interpretation, Putin has Trump by the balls and the American Dear Leader is subservient to the stronger Russian Dear Leader. Donald Trump is cos playing a strong leader while Vladimir Putin is in fact a strong leader.

 

And to a right winger, being a "strong" leader is the most important thing. Being a smart leader, or a non-homicidal leader is way down the list.

 

Or the Trump Admin figured that once again a new Admin could make a deal with Russia that the previous Admin could not. Goes back to the Obama Admin.

More likely, the Trump Admin figured that they could get Putin to agree to a peace settlement if they allowed the Russians to keep their gains in the East and offered them an off ramp from this conflict that did not go they way Putin thought it would. It would allow Putin to get out of the quagmire he has found himself in and save face with the Russian people. With the losses that the Ukrainians were inflicted on the RGF, it makes sense when looking at it from an American perspective. The problem with that is the Russians do not have an American perspective and they have a completely different framework they are working off of.

 

Don’t give Trumpty Dumpty any ideas or this will be coming to Trumpty’s Amerika soon. Pull people off the streets and instead of El Salvador, send them to Trump’s Capo.

 

continuing to give and get nothing in return with no willingness to extract a price for their intransigence.

 

Agree in principle, but on this issue we have given precisely nothing, only floated an idea … and maybe even have not really done that. After all, we are discussing a rumor here.

But for the sake of argument, let’s say this Administration officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea as some sort of precondition and get nothing in return. What can be done easily by one President can be undone just as easily by the next.

For what it’s worth, my position continues to be that time is on Ukraine’s side. If Russia won’t agree to a more-than-fair deal immediately, I say bleed them white for another year and force them to take something far worse.

 

Any negotiator worth their salt lets actions speak. Words are secondary. Consider, for example, President Trump understands Vladimir Putin can be vulnerable to public flattery. However, extending sanctions and military aid needn't fanfare.

 

Today marks 90 days in. Peace negotiations for a war of this scale rarely resolve in 90 days. Especially when they begin from nothing. Biden ghosted the Kremlin for three years. No contact. No backchannel. The diplomatic apparatus was almost entirely dismantled. Yet from that silence, basic diplomatic channels have been resurrected, in record speed by some accounts.

As for Russia’s negotiation terms, it wasn’t unreasonable to expect them to reclaim Kursk before getting knee-deep in talks. But overall, I don’t completely disagree with you about Russia's point of view versus America's. Russia will likely hold out until all four oblasts are formally ceded. The Kremlin has already framed this domestically. Referendums were held. Ethnic Russians voted. The oblasts chose Russia. To retreat now would be seen as betrayal. Abandoning Russian-speaking populations to what the Kremlin calls the "neo-Nazi regime" in Kyiv is not an option for Putin.

 

I don’t necessarily disagree with any of that. The only measure of effectiveness is a sustainable peace deal, though. And Russia does not yet have the motivation to sign one. Rubio seems to be figuring that out. Like I said, though, the whole farce was worth a try to reveal Russia for what it is.

 

Weren't you all-in on Trump's ridiculous claim that he would have peace in 24 hours? Do you buy all of Trump's lies, and excuse them as exaggerations, or do you pick and choose which lies to support (and which ones to pretend were never spoken)?

I bet if I pointed a loaded gun at your head, you would vote to belong to Russia. Are you not smart enough to understand that, okey-dokie? Should we negotiate to have your property be reassigned to Russia based on you voting that way under those circumstances? Or would you whine and complain afterwards that it wasn't fair and you need "justice"?

 

This is just false. You are either making things up or have been misled. In fact, Biden maintained diplomatic relations with Russia to a fault, when what he should have done was closer to what you described. If you’ll recall, he even allowed Russia to keep negotiating with Iran for us until the media and his own party found out and reacted in horror. That was a symptom of the whole failure of the last administration to put its strategic priorities in order: getting a new Iran deal was more important, climate change policy was more important, not enriching the “military-industrial complex” was more important. If you want to make an argument about a change in how each administration uses diplomatic power, then you could say Trump has changed the tone and would not be wrong (though, it still remains to be seen if that will work), but the amount and type of diplomatic contact has not changed in an appreciable way.