It’s a good point, but Houston seems very good at limiting transition baskets. And we haven’t been able to run very much against most teams in this tourney. If we can get down the court regularly, I would definitely like our chances.
Double digit lead on Houston and they are in trouble against us. Not a bunch of kids on our team who will overthink it like Duke. Maturity is really highlighted in the finals.
The biggest issue to me is our being able to score against Houston's defense, and our ability to get offensive rebounds when we don't score. Houston is #1 defensively on KenPom. They have the top scoring defense in the country at 58.5 points per game. We can't let this end up like our game at Tennessee, where they confused and intimidated us to the point that we froze up. We only scored 44 points and shot 24.5% from the field. I don't think that will happen, but that's the worst case that we have to avoid.
TOs is #1 Rebounds is #2 Everything else a distant second. They'll kill us if we're Maryland-level loose with the ball (17 TOs). Like - throttle us. We have no chance if we're turning it over because of the increased value of each possession (there will be less) and their efficiency - which leads to... Rebounding - if they control the boards - they'll be incredibly efficient, and more importantly, we won't. Our efficiencey is driven by our ability to get our misses. Take that away and it's gonna be a long night. We also need to get their misses if we want a chance at getting the pace up. Matchups and approaches are important, but with out controlling these two stats, it's going to be hard to win - and the TO thing is scary as hell. This is why UH was the team I least wanted to see.
We proved in the second half of the Maryland game that we can reduce TO's, I am sure TG is/has stressed the importance of this. Now, will we execute the plan. My concern is that our guards will try to feed the big guys in the paint and lately our guys either fumble it or we force up a bad shot. It seems Houston shoots a ton of 3's and they are lethal when left open. We have to contest the long ball. What happens so often when the do miss, rebounds don't happen close to the rim but bounce further away. They are quick and are very familiar where these misses will land. I believe that is why they are so proficient at rebounding.
The key to winning is limiting turnovers. We were the worst #1 seed in recent memory when it came to turning the ball over and Houston is the best at creating them as well as steals. If we play like a JV team in the 1st half, the game will be over by halftime.
For those that watched the Duke-Houston game, what allowed them to get that 14 point lead before collapsing? Was Duke uniquely capable of that or can we replicate it, while also being better at rebounding and defense? I imagine that analysts were picking Duke in that game to win, and yet are now picking Houston. Is that mostly just because they beat Duke?
Took more than a half against Auburn for UF to get separation from physical defense, which facilitated better flow, which facilitated the space to run more. I sure don't relish the idea of watching them wait that long again. In that regard, I wish the Gators were utilizing the low block more often in this tournament, both for kickouts and inside scoring. But Condon and Handlogten have got to be more swift and decisive with their shot moves for that approach to work. Chinyelu has his flaws but he doesn't waste time worrying that his hook shot might get blocked.
We need condin to get a few buckets, chinyelu a few dunks -- but they need to dominate the glass with Micah. Hough needs to hit 2 threes. we can't give up easy 2nd chance buckets. And we caused our own TOs. we were lazy turning the ball over -- keep it clean, and we in.
We have to SELECTIVELY run. I think will Richard is the key tonight. They are going to focus on Clayton so he should get some great looks.
Houston loves to trap, I expect on every ball screen that they’ll double the ball handler, our screener needs to slip the screen and be prepared to make offensive decision. We need to find the open man while exploiting them trapping. I think Haugh is going to have a big game along with Martin.
Old reference, but Houston reminds me of the " 40 minutes of hell" Arky used to put on the court in the Richardson days.
We will both get our fair share of offensive rebounds. Neither team is elite on the defensive glass, but both are offensively. Key is that our "cheap" scores can come out of defensive rebounds that we turn into early offense. Won't be many fast break points in this game, but if we want to sneak in extra possessions/shots, that's where they will come.
Houston this year has 4 losses, Auburn by 5, Bama by 5 in overtime at 7-2 in ot (higher score of 85-80 and Bama outrebounded them 43-29), San Diego st by 3 and Tex Tech by 1. So they "could" have been undefeated! Other notes- they held Tennessee to 50, Purdue to 60, BYU 54, Kansas 59, Utah 36, etc. Their game is two punches. Total Defense and 3 point shooting. My opinion-- Rebound and dont go into scoring droughts.
So many thoughts going through my head but I'll try to keep them few and short. Let me start by saying, I believe we will win as long as turnovers don't control this game. We take care of the ball and our advantages will take care of the rest. The key for victory is how we handle adjustments and transitions. Here are several examples. 1. Because Houston lacks in size (I know there bigs have long arms) they often commit 4 players to the offensive glass. When this happens it opens up opportunities for fast breaks, especially if we get their long rebounds. If they only have one player back, we can push the tempo for 2 on 1 breaks. 2. Houston likes to play aggressive defense by bumping any drive in the lane and protecting the paint. I saw Duke getting the ball in the lane consistently and we will do the same. They choose to do this which opens up 3 point shots. They can't allow us to sit outside and bomb away so they will have to be more aggressive at one on one defense. Enter Alijah Martin. He thrives at driving the lane and fighting thru contact. Houston's guards do not have the size to deal with that. I look for him to have a big game. 3. Look for Handlogten to be more of a factor than any other game this tournament. He is our best passing big and has a height and size advantage over anyone they put on the court. If we get the ball to him inside, he will find the open shooters open for 3. Even if Houston reacts and runs at the shooter, we will counter by quick passes around the top to wide open guards. 4. Alex Condon is a key for this game especially. Even though he has not been as consistent, he seems to thrive against aggressive competition. Its like fueling his fire as the game goes. Look back at the season. In some of our biggest games, he goes into another level late in the game. He starts taking over the boards, getting tip backs to shooters, getting put back slams, and out hustling everyone down the court. If that happens, there will be no miracle comeback tonight. 5. Lastly, our offense needs to flow thru Clayton, Martin, and Haugh. That triple combo will be hard to stop for anyone. All three can drive and finish. All three can make threes at a high clip. All three will get there points and force Houston to adjust, which opens other opportunities on the court for Richard, Chins, Condon, and Aberdeen. Plus all three are reliable free throw shooters which we will need late. So you see these five examples can only play out if we limit turnovers. These are all what we can do on offense and without the ball, there is no offense.
