War in Ukraine

Make your case then.

I’ve made mine.

 

You have not. You made the assertion, it is on you to provide proof. Prove there is a 5:1 to 10:1 for the RGF.

 

Watch out. You’re setting yourself up for the infamous “history began in 2022” retort.

 

Can you prove a particular RGF ?

 

No doubt. Although, I'm skeptical still that Russia are deploying their very best assets in Ukraine, as I am convinced they are content with possessing the 4 oblasts and Crimea. This accomplishes their main objective of keeping Ukraine out of NATO and exercising dominion over the Black Sea. Aside from this, there isn't much in the way of tangible net benefit to Russia by occupying more than these stated areas of Ukraine. Most of the mineral wealth is in the currently occupied regions and the cost to administer the entirety of Ukraine is not a boon to Russia and accomplishes very little for them geopolitically.

 

We know you get your propaganda from the Kremlin via "Moon of Alabama", "Simpletonius", "Caitlyn Johnstone" and other questionable sources.

How exactly do you know how many Russians have been inserted into the conflict? As far as casualties go, Russia is going to much greater lengths to hide them than Ukraine is. They send casualties to Belarus for medical care to try to hide the casualty numbers. Sometimes they send them back into battle before they get off their crutches. Sometimes they leave them to die on the battlefield rather than risk anyone's life to save them.

The truth is that Ukraine has better targeting info (or did, before Trump decided to help Putin), more accurate weapons, including artillery, and more capable weapons, including HIMARS, Bradley, Leopard, Patriot, and F-16's. Russia has been using low-quality artillery shells from North Korea, and sending out more and more obsolete tanks into battle. They are afraid to send their latest tanks and jet fighters into battle, because they have not fared well when tested.

The Ukrainians are also more motivated to win this war, which is existential for Ukraine, but not for Russia. And Russia has a long history of sending in lower-classed troops (including prisoners) to attract fire from the Ukrainians, so they can target Ukraine's troops in city fighting. Russia uses these "meat-wave" tactics, but Ukraine does not, because it cannot afford to lose people at a high rate.

 

I glean my info almost entirely from Western sources like the ones you’re citing. You glean your intel from Ukrainian sources regurgitated by mainstream media which included such dandies as Russian troops subsisting on zoo animals.

How do you know how many Russians were initially inserted into theatre so as to dismiss out-of-hand my estimates ?

How do you know Ukrainians are better motivated than Russians against a backdrop of Russian Duma members signing up for combat vs. Ukrainian citizens being press-ganged on the street and, more recently, polls showing the majority of Ukrainians wanting the war to end ?

 

I post a Russian KIA estimate from a virulently anti-Putin news group, working in conjunction with the BBC to painstaking catalogue as many Russian KIA as it can … and I get a “just a random website.”

 

Should not have to. Just show your work on the ratio.

 

You have also been provided the estimate from the US IC. Why would you distrust them but believe a website that does not have the same collection ability, systems, and relationships?

 

You’ve simply cited a Ukrainian source for Russian KIA. I’ve cited circumstantial evidence why 700 casualties is likely a spectacular exaggeration.

 

Yes, and what is the source of the US IC estimate ?

 

duggers_dad's number range is the same as mine. My recollection in that sometime in mid 2022 some documents from Ukraine Intel leaked. My recollection is that the best ratio for Ukraine was 1 Russian tank killed for every 4 Ukrainian tanks killed. As far as soldiers killed I think Russia had a 7:1 or 8:1 advantage. I think this is ballpark for what Scott Ritter and Retired Col. Douglas MacGregor have said.

 

What special insight do Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor have that other analysts do not? If the source of said insight has a motive for bias, then it is unlikely reliable data.

 

My post above was off. A report from Turkey cited leaked Mossad documents for the various battlefield ratios. The story evidently came out in early 2023 and the kill ratio dovetails with what Col Douglas MacGregor was saying at the time, leading Gonzalo Lira to the conclusion the numbers were coming from the Pentagon. Turns out it was helicopters not tanks that had a 4:1 ratio in favor of the Russians. Tanks were 9:1. Interesting info from Gonzalo RIP.

 

Don’t understand why people have such a hard time assimilating the likelihood that Russia has begin doggedly dedicated (to the chagrin of many Russians) to a war of attrition.

 

Now you know why the Biden administration was happy to see Gonzalo Lira tortured and essentially murdered in a Ukrainian jail. He wasn't part of the Mockingbird Media that most people choose to be brainwashed by