Shifting Media Outlook for Final 4

Talking about writers more so than others. By the way, before the tournament started Barkley picked us to win it all.

 

In a nice article about the final 4, Bilas also gives a nod to the power of Vegas.

At some point, I became a "basketball analyst," which sounds profoundly snobbish. Suddenly, we were asked to pick winners of each game, which was counterintuitive to my sensibilities. After all, if I knew who was going to win, why wouldn't I just go to Las Vegas and sit by the pool with a drink in my hand and rake in the winnings?

Bilas: Why this men's Final Four will be 'absolutely incredible'​

 

At least he knows what he doesn't know. Some of these guys think they're gods. The way some people hang on their every word is even worse.

 

And then there are those who hang on every word of youtube nobodies.

 

podcasters, lol.

Don't get me started.

 

I get the argument and agree to an extent that lines can be predictive. You have to take into acct, though, the way lines move and that can be due to injuries and other factors, but ultimately it's due to the betting action on the game. Sometimes it's simply due to a huge bet coming in.

 

A lot of lonely guys on the interwebz.

 

Half of the CBS sports talking heads picked Aubie to win. One of their main CB expert has been picking UF's opponent since the 2nd round. Do gc posters have their heads stuck in the sand?

 

You’re correct that the line is always determined by bets. I just think that bets are almost always determined by what bettors truly believe will happen. Though I agree that really large bets by single individuals are biggest threat to the accuracy of betting lines, as individuals can be quite biased, but I view line movements that come from disperse betting as likely conveying real information.

Now it is possible that groups could be biased too. Eg maybe people bet their favorite team, and there are more Duke fans that Florida fans, so Duke ends up being favored simply by virtue of being more popular. But even here, if this is true, likely some bettors know this is true and will bet on Duke’s opponents, bringing the line back toward reality. Vegas is definitely far from perfect, but it’s awfully tough to beat.

 

It is quite amazing how accurate they are even though their ultimate goal has nothing to do with being accurate. Their main goal is to have as close to even money on both sides of the line as possible, not to be right.

 

The cbs “talking heads” are supposed to make it seem like it’s going to be a close game. I think it will be a close game.

 

Sports book odds are usually the best indicator period. Even during elections.

 

While this is generally true, it's really the sharps (i.e. pro bettors) that keep lines "accurate". Even if most public bets come in on one side, books won't move the lines too much out of fear the sharps will come in and bet the other side and punish the books.

For example, it sounds bettors like Florida so far, but the line isn't moving to even things out yet, the books will end up exposed to a Florida win:

March Madness Final Four Betting Handles | Odds Shark

 

As with anything else, there is some nuance. I wasn’t saying anything about moving lines, who influences what, who picks the lines, or anything else. Just that they’re incredibly accurate with their predictions even though accuracy is not really their goal.

 

In a normal regular season game, I would agree.
It has to be in the minds of all Gator players.
However, as one who has performed well under pressure, as part of a team effort ( in the extreme) ..you know this:
The most intense, persistent pressure is internal, far and away the greatest motivator. You know this.
This team will win..or not. With their every minute of competition, they will be playing for their teammates.
Family..loved ones..fans..coaches…whatever, are in the background. First and foremost is THE TEAM. In intense competition, THAT is the driving force. Writers, tv talking heads are simply background noise. Noted, but not ever what drives the champions onward.
Jmho.

 

IMHO, what makes these games wins and not losses, besides some unfortunate bounces down the stretch, is senior leaders and quality guards. We have both. Teams rightly get rattled as they get closer to the finish line, especially when they are playing increasingly tougher teams.

Besides our getting too many turnovers, about the biggest fly in the ointment would be too many of our bigs getting into foul trouble and Golden has to get "creative" on defense. Otherwise, this team is built for full steam ahead and a date with destiny against the best collection of freshmen talent in probably history.

It is going to take a fabulous game by Auburn to win it (rather than us losing it).