By: Eric Fawcett -- March 30, 2025 Florida has their Final Four opponent, and it will be a second matchup against the Auburn Tigers. Given that Auburn had earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, as the Gators did, it always looked like it was going to be a possibility that these teams would meet in the Final Four, and in a Tournament that has seen the top seeds take care of business this meeting feels like a natural next step. Florida Versus Auburn Final Four Preview | GatorCountry.com
We screwed: Men's Final Four predictions, previews for Auburn-Florida, Duke-Houston All of them picked us to beat Auburn.
It will be a battle. We shocked them on the plains with our effort and physicality. They will be ready this time and motivated. We will have to go toe to toe with every blow. Gators have more heart and chemistry.
Saw an artilce thins morning with odds to win it all. In order it was Duke, UF, Houston, Aubrin. It went on to say that before the tournament started, it had UF as the favorite.
Greetings Gators, Yall flat out whipped us in the Jungle in the regular season. We jumped out to an early 10 point lead and our guys looked like they just expected to roll like we had been. Clayton and Co. had other ideas. The big takeaways from the first meeting were the domination that Haugh and Condon had down low and all of the second chances yall capitalized on, along with a good deal of dribble drive penetration. I'd expect to see more assertion of Cardwell/Broome/Johnson on the block in the rematch. I think the game will come down to the battles of the backcourts. The matchup to watch is likely Denver Jones guarding Walter Clayton Jr. That should be a fantastic battle. I could see this going either way. I do expect it to be a war and probably a game within 2-6 points at the end. Either way, this is a very personal game for both head coaches as Bruce is extremely close with Todd and Steven is best friends with Todd. Both coaches know each other extremely well. Lots of storylines for this match as well as the Duke Houston match on the other side. Looking forward to it.
Pretty much what I’m thinking too, AUtiger. I imagine there will be some runs in the game, but I don’t imagine they will be all performed by the same team. Hopefully Broome is ok. That guy is like a cat with 9 lives the way he keeps bouncing back from these injuries.
It comes down to which team can make shots when both D’s will be playing at a high level. Lots of shots will be contested.
He should be good to go Saturday. He'll be sore as hell today but no damage. I'd expect all hands on deck for both teams in San Antonio.
Going to have to miss this one in person. Firstly my wife has had rotator cuff surgery and cannot travel. Secondly there was a death of one of our oldest and dearests (she was 99) and I am trying to get travel arranged for myself and hoping that my other folks from Illinois are going up north of Green Bay and can take me with them. Rolling dice on this. But had lots of people we know asking about Final Four tickets. LOL.
It's all up to God, but encouraging statistics reveal that the average end of year ranking of the teams Auburn played was 86.5, Duke 71, Houston 62, and Florida 55.5. Houston and Florida were the only Final Four teams that played top ten teams to get to the Final Four. We beat the 10th ranked team (Maryland) by 16, and the 7th ranked team (Texas Tech) by 5. Houston beat the 8th ranked team (Gonzaga) by 5, and the 5th ranked team (Tennessee) by 19. So Houston played tougher teams in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8, but we played tougher teams in the firs and second rounds including the two time defending champs. Auburn played no one in the top 10 in all four rounds. Even if you wipe out the first round for all of the #1 seeds, the averages for the 3 next rounds are Auburn 24, Houston 11, Duke 16, and Florida 16. DEEPER DIVE Florida played its 4 tournament games against programs that have won 6 of the last 25 National Championships. And played against 5 teams the entire season that have won 11 championships in the last 25 years. Houston played its 4 tournament games against programs that have won 0 of the last 25 NCs. And played against 3 teams the entire season that have won 7 championships in the last 25 years Duke played its 4 tournament games against programs that have won 1 of the last 25 NCs. And played against 6 teams the entire season that have won 16 championships in the last 25 years.* Auburn played its 4 tournament games against programs that have won 1 of the last 25 NCs. And played against 5 teams the entire season that have won 10 championships in the last 25 years. *played Louisville 2 times, Kansas 1 time (has won NC 2 TIMES in the last 25 years), UNC 3 times (has won NC 3 times in the last 25) Baylor 1 time, Virginia 1 time, and Kentucky 1 time. Metrics provide insight, but God's favor provides outcomes, We have had the tougher road to the tournament.
We are 19-0 when 5 or more of our players score 8 points or more. We are 10-0- when 3 or 4 of our players score 8 points or more and win by more than 6 points. We are 5-2 when 3 or 4 of our players score 8 points or more where the wins were 6 points or less. We are 0-2 when only 2 of our players score 8 points or more. 1 of our losses was by 1 point, one by 5, and one by 6 points. So 3 of our 4 losses were 1 possession or 2 possession losses. The Tennessee loss in Knoxville was the only game this year where only one Gator scored in double figures.
Combined with what we, who have "seen" our players in the tournament, ask, "what's wrong with our guys?" sense that they are playing less-than their best for 40 minutes. I will cling to the notion that players/staff felt the weight of a 1-Seed to an discernible extent, only fractional maybe, but playing at this level against those teams it was potentially significant. Just as Alex's ankle is only "mostly healed" (we need Miracle Max), it seems to have had an evident impact on a % of his game and thus it impacts every other player that has come to rely on the prior level. The beauty of team sports is the confluence of factors needed to produce victory, even when there is only a single ball in play.
Final 4 is so often won by experienced guards. We have 3 very experienced guards starting. They are the difference makers if we hold our own in other aspects.
Auburn lost 5 games this season. They lost to Tennessee by 5 and Tennessee made 12 more FT. They lost to Alabama by 2 and Alabama made 5 more FT. They lost to Duke by 6 and Duke made 7 more FT. That is three of their five losses. Duke shot 27 FTAs, Bama 24, UT 27, TAMU another loss 25, and we shot 18. in all 5 losses, Auburn was minus 30 in free throws made (average of 6 per game ) and they loss by an average 6.5 per game in those five losses. We were only plus 1 in free throws when we beat them by 9 in Auburn. However, this metric appears to be an Achilles heel for them. For us getting four or more in the scoring pattern is important. We won 29 games where 3 or more of our players scored more than 8 points where we won by more than two possessions. We had 5 two possession wins - 3 where we had 3 players score 8 or more and 2 where we had 4 players score 8 or more. Two of our losses came when only 2 of our players scores 8 or more and two of our losses came when 4 of our players scored 8 or more. We are 34 and 2 when we have 3 or more players score 8 points or more. if we are going to win a championship we have to be solidly in the 4 and hopefully 5 range. We are 19-0 when 5 or more players score 8 or more points. When we played Auburn, we were at 5. If we are more aggressive to the paint all players, we will get FTs and at the same time bring the number of players with 8 or more points closer to reality with each FTM.
