See a lot of talk how NIL has killed the Cinderella story of a mid major making a run in March. I tend to agree, which sucks. We all loved it when they make a run, as long as it’s not against my team. Thoughts?
Makes sense. NIL is compromising ncaa sports. Too bad that it became pay-for-play, instead of what was intended, which was athletes having the ability to earn $ off their name, image, and likeness.
It was never going to work. Unless it's someone like Arch Manning, the only NIL value 99.9% of the athletes have is because of the laundry they are wearing.
It very well could be, but I think people are overreacting to a year where it has been mostly chalk. It’s rare, but statistically due to happen at some point.
Florida Atlantic Owls were a very talented mid-major last year whose roster disintegrated following a disappointing first round NCAA Tournament exit in 2024 after being a final four team in 2023. Here are the players they lost to top tier teams: Vlad Golden 7'0" C to Michigan along with the Florida Atlantic Coach. Michigan in Round of 32. Alijah Martin: SG to the Gators. Was 2nd team All Tournament when Owls went to Final Four in 2023 Johnell Davis: SG to Arkansas. Starter on current NCAA 32 team for Calipari. Three other fourth year seniors that helped Owls to 2023 Final Four also transferred in 2024 Ultimately, several successful teams in this year's tournament, including Florida, took portal transfers from mid-majors to build their super teams. I expect Florida will be seeking a stud PG in the portal to fill a gap in next year's roster. So either you embrace the transfer portal for your major team to compete for mid-major talent (and pay the NIL tax) or your team will fall to the wayside. Can't blame the kids for seeking greater opportunities ($, facilities, national air-time, championship contention) instead of being loyal to lower-tier team with limited NIL $ and national exposure. Mid-majors are now minor league talent developers for the majors. I don't expect any more Florida Atlantic-like mid-major final four surprises. I'm okay with that.
IMO its premature to draw too many conclusion. San Diego St made the final two years ago and the S16 last year. 11-seed NC St made a final four run last year (narrowly beating 14 seed Oakland in round 2 along the way). FAU made the final four two years ago as mentioned above. NIL is raiding those mid majors for sure, but I don't think Cinderella's are dead yet. If this goes on for a few more years then I'll buy into it.
IMO, there are two reasons for the downfall, although the second is probably limited. The first is that the game has changed, and I don't mean NIL. What I mean is that, because of the way players can move with impunity (okay, maybe a bit about NIL), you can amass mature talent on your team, whereas before some teams had to recruit players out of HS and then hope they grew into mature players. Real athletic talent could overcome a lot of the maturity, but if it does not jell quickly, the more mature team could achieve (see Cal and Kentucky). The O-A-D rule has made a damn mess of all that is good about college level basketball. And so, the cinderellas could manifest IF they matured nicely. And remember, it isn't that all mid-major teams are prepared to overcome the odds, just a couple per year. The rest don't even come close to making the tourney. The second reason is that the rankings system is getting better control of who is elite, who is good, who is quality, who is middling, and who is "deserving but limited." You can't be all that shocking if you are always in the proper spot. Right now, Arkansas is about the most shocking addition to the tourney. And they were never chopped liver. They just didn't jell early. NC caliber? Doubt it.
Hell our team is basically a cinderella team..we have a bunch of mid major transfers or guys that were forgotten on their old teams lined with a few guys who had very few scholarship offers. I think Ruben is our highest rated recruit on the team. Clayton has become a star, build a narrative off of this NCAA!!!
The sunny side of NIL is also players staying not just for the love of the game and campus like the 04’s which never happens vs. kids staying around because they might make some or in some cases more money than they would if they left. Double edged sword and in the end the right thing to do unless we are selfish. Not for nothing (whatever that actually means) has been super beneficial for the Gators. No transfer portal and we’re watching the Tourney deciding who to root for right now.
Queen from Maryland said “Coach pays us.” First thing out if his mouth. Their team seems like mercenaries compared to our boys who have nothing but love for each other. Yes. NIL is sad.
Why even bother recruiting a high school kid unless there is something special about them? You are better off recruiting proven players from other teams that you know can play at your level and are already adjusted to college life as well. You have mitigated the risk by going to get a college player over a high school player for the most part. Go get Solo Ball from UConn for next year just to piss off Hurley even more.
I think it is an overreaction to a single season. There are years when the tournament goes chalk, it happens. There's also quite a basketball obsessed mid-major schools that seem to be putting together their own fairly impressive NIL collectives. Too early to declare anything. Will say, the good thing about a year like this for the casual fan is that they are going to see high level matchups in S16 and beyond. People love the upsets early, but don't tune in to the blowouts that happen later aka UF vs. George Mason.
What NIL and the portal (especially the portal) are doing is you get a Cinderella that makes it deep and then they get plundered. No more Cinderella. Gone are the days of a San Diego St have multiple years of success in March Madness.
I don't think its dead. But I do think it will be relegated to historical Cinderellas and Mid-majors (IE VCU, Butler, etc) who, because of their history, have had enough of a chance pre-NIL to build up a substantial support base in alumni, boosters and support programs/fan clubs that act as additional booster organizations (An example of the type of organization Im talking about locally would be stuff like the Florida Gator Touchdown Club which takes donations for the football and basketball programs in exchange for some preferential treatment in stuff like parking, coordination at games and ticket rights/packages) Those schools will be able to have big enough NIL pockets/programs to stay competitive and pay enough to keep a couple star players needed for those Cinderella runs. But the spontaneous Cinderella is probably dead because they wont have the money to keep those players when its revealed they were much better than scouted in HS
This is how the SEC got so good vs. other conferences so quickly. There isn't an SEC team on that list with more than 2 starting players that began at the school they are playing with now.
I suspect you'll still see Cinderellas in the years to come. What might be harder is for coaches to basically assemble mid-major dynasties and string together multiple tournament appearances in a row. You upset a couple teams in the tournament, make a run to the Sweet 16, the big boys are going to be coming for your players. You don't get to bring them back for another year to dominate the MAC.
