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Scientists conclude that it was not a Wuhan lab leak

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by cocodrilo, Jul 27, 2022.

  1. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    No, he is a person...who made a Youtube video.
     
  2. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Says just a person on a sports discussion website.
     
  3. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Right here
    I do think we likely agree on a lot, but the nature of a message board is often to focus on the points of disagreement, even if narrow.

    There is science and policy. Scientists shouldn’t be fully in charge of policy, as that is not their domain. We’ve probably all had the experience of a pediatrician telling us to do something with our kids that just plain would never work. Because they aren’t there, they can’t know all of that. Same with a scientist. They should inform the policy makers of their best estimation of what is, and they policy makers should use that info to determine what should be.

    In many cases, these decisions will be easy to criticize in retrospect. For COVID, I will say that at least dealing with pandemics is a proper role of the federal government, even if we don’t agree with the choices they made.
     
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  4. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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  5. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    You don't think it's a tad suspicious considering there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 45,000 wet markets in China around 2019 and just as luck would have it the place where Covid started was in a small wet market in Wuhan, which just so happens to have a Biolab that studies such viruses...

    I mean, what are the odds? 1 in 45,000? And this doesn't set off alarm bells in your head? If not, I think it's fair to question your biases regarding the lab leak theory. Because the fact scientists lied right away about the lab leak theory and China being so defensive is a giant red flag to anyone with an open mind.
     
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  6. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    In point of fact, neither can so-called pandemics be left to scientists as so many are captive to professions such that they’re liable to find themselves out of work for asking too many questions.
     
  7. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Scientists conclude that the virus leaked from lab.

    Scientists conclude emerged from nature.

    Scientists conclude there was no virus.

    Did I leave any scientists out ?
     
  8. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Right here
    On its face, this fact totally seems suspicious, 95. However, I think we want to add a little context before deciding that this coincidence is definitive.

    First, we are assuming the location of the virus and virology lab must have no relationship other than the lab causing the virus, but causation might run the other way. Instead, of the lab location causing the virus location, it is likely that the lab is located in Wuhan because of the naturally occurring coronaviruses there. If someone got sick from tide near Mote Marine Lab in Sarasota, which studies red tide, we likely wouldn’t blame the lab. The lab is there because that’s where the red tide is.

    Second, we also seem to be assuming that this is the only lab of its kind, but this is not true. Angie Rasmussen noted in the article I linked above that such labs exist in the US, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK, and many other countries. In fact, there are several in China, which were commissioned after the SARS outbreak, another coronavirus that also originated in China. Here’s a map from 2021 of just the BSL4 labs around the world.

    [​IMG]
    Dang image won’t post, but here is the link: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/newimages/sspp/ghsm/main/global-bio-labs-map.x7db63ae5.jpg?f=webp


    In the end, I agree that this coincidence is worth noting. I also think it would be overly simplistic to assume that this coincidence can only have one explanation. To quote the signature of one our funniest and most attractive posters, “Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take that as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem it was intended to solve.”
     
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  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Thank you for the thoughtful response. Regarding the Labs, IF the virus broke out Singapore or the UK the first place I'm looking is their bio lab. Since there was somewhere in the neighborhood of 50K wet markets in China in 2019, the Wuhan Lab should be the 1st place I'm looking at in this situation. The fact that it's been widely acknowledged that they didn't have proper safety measures there compared to other labs makes my BS meter go up even more. I'm not saying it's 100% a lab leak. I'm more in the 80-85% odds camp personally. Could it have happened naturally? I guess, but the odds IMO are much more likely that it escaped the Wuhan Lab accidentally.

    US officials were reportedly concerned that safety breaches at a Wuhan lab studying coronaviruses in bats could cause a pandemic

    In the cables, obtained by the Washington Post national-security columnist Josh Rogin, US officials raised concerns about safety at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2018, two years before the novel coronavirus outbreak.

    According to The Post, a cable dated January 19, 2018, said that "during interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory."

    The Post said that diplomats and scientists were particularly worried about the safety of the lab's research on the transmission of bat coronaviruses and warned that sloppy safety protocols for handling contagious viruses in the lab "represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic."
     
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  10. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    “Bioweapon” in the form of something deadly AND spreads across oceans and countries exists in the way a unicorn exists. Some people believe it’s out there and if they just keep looking they’ll find it.
     
  11. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Right here
    Thanks 95. I think the lab leak hypothesis needs to be taken seriously. Probably not so much the engineered virus hypothesis, on which much of Chan’s case seems to rest, but an accidental leak is definitely plausible, as your link suggests.

    Still, I think it’s a hypothesis that requires more support, though I’m not even sure what supporting evidence would look like at this point.
     
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  12. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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  13. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    Bottom line: in the absence of any evidence for viruses (there is none) there are is no bioweapon to fear, no bio labs to ferret out and no foreign country to blame for what we essentially did to ourselves, which was to give way to mass-hysteria

    Biowarfare or Biotheater?
     
  14. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    upload_2025-4-22_18-8-3.jpeg