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SEC Tourney Predictions?

Discussion in 'Nuttin but Net' started by dailydoublecat, Mar 9, 2025 at 12:33 PM.

  1. hawaiigator

    hawaiigator GC Legend

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    I definitely don’t discount Duke nor do I fear them. However, resume wise they beat up on a bunch of Quad 3 teams. If we get our OOC games held against us, their in conference games should count against them. Don’t care if they blew them out, we would have too
     
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  2. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Right here
    It’s true at this point, our schedule has been stronger, and whether that comes from games in or out of conference shouldn’t matter. It is also true that they have a better record than we do, so that could counteract this disparity. I do think margin of victory should also play a role - though ours is quite high as well.

    We can do a detailed comparison like the one I did with Auburn yesterday. These are NET rankings:

    Florida top 25 wins:

    2 away
    5 home
    6 away
    16 home

    Duke top 25 wins:

    2 neutral
    13 away
    15 neutral
    23 away

    Four wins a piece. The Gators probably have the top 2 wins here, and the other two are pretty close. Edge to Florida.

    Florida losses:

    #5 away
    #12 away
    #21 home
    #30 away

    Duke losses:

    #12 neutral
    #18 neutral
    #22 away

    Florida has the two “best” losses here, but also the worst two losses. In addition Duke has one fewer loss. Edge Duke.

    To me, the resumes are fairly close. If Florida wins the SEC tourney, I’d put them above Duke regardless of how they finish.
     
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  3. GatorLurker

    GatorLurker GC Hall of Fame

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    Florida versus the ACC is 4-0 beating FSU away, Wake neutral, UNC for a virtual UNC home game and Virginia in the Dome.
     
  4. phideltdj

    phideltdj GC Hall of Fame

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    Also let's use a little logic....would Duke have the same record if they played UF's conference schedule...no. Would UF have the same record if they played Duke's conference schedule...yes and probably an even better record than they currently have.
     
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  5. eastowest

    eastowest GC Hall of Fame

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    12974872.jpeg
     
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  6. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Right here
    Well said, phidelt. SOS has to matter, but it’s just not always clear exactly how to apply this maxim. With Florida and Auburn it’s clear, because they share the same record, Auburn should be ranked ahead of Florida by virtue of their higher SOS. Maybe Florida should be ahead of Duke, but it’s not clear precisely how many games a given difference in SOS is worth.

    However, this is exactly the goal of the metrics, to compare the quality of teams that played different schedules. By most of these metrics, Duke would be expected to have a better record than Florida given the same schedule. Maybe Duke wouldn’t actually have Florida’s record if they played Florida’s schedule, but Florida likely wouldn’t have Florida’s record if they played Florida’s schedule again, so this chaos must be accounted for as well.
     
  7. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    If only they could have decided it on the court.
     
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  8. librarywestpatron2005

    librarywestpatron2005 All American

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    They should only allow top 12 teams (first 4 receiving a bye) in the tournament. Having possibility (no matter how remote) of 5 games in 5 days is ridiculous. Also will provide motivation to the bottom feeders that they have something to play for at end of regular season.
     
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  9. Bazza

    Bazza GC Hall of Fame

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    Going to go with a Bacon Bits win on the first one. Vandy in Game 2. Toss up on Game 3. And the Dawgs in Game 4.

    2025-03-09 at 09.30.19.jpg
     
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  10. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Hogs, Doors, State, Sooners.
     
  11. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Could be a dangerous assumption. We should treat any team as a possible Cinderella as there always is one. Would hate to be the team that didn’t take every game in the Tourney very seriously or we will never make it to the champion.
     
  12. paidinfull

    paidinfull GC Hall of Fame

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    The team certainly should. I don't think what the rest of us think about it is going to make much difference.
     
  13. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Are we hoping LSU beats MSU and mizzou?
     
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  14. paidinfull

    paidinfull GC Hall of Fame

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    Can they all lose? :p
     
  15. ApexNC

    ApexNC GC Hall of Fame

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    Pulling for 'Dores and Sooners today
     
  16. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Ummm yeah, I thought the underlying we means the team playing the actual game. There is always one person that says that obvious fact when discussing I hope the team doesn’t assume. Better for ya? ;)
     
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  17. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Well then it would just be us playing nobody. That wouldn’t be fun. I’m feeling quite pragmatic today. This joke was made by I think you in grander fashion when I said “do we want auburn or Alabama to lose?”

    and I think you said “yes”. You did better on that joke. I suppose the answer is yes if we want to play the team most likely to lose to us. However they would be on a roll of beating two very good teams but they would also be tired. Hmmm
     
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  18. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Right here
    Id personally like to see Missouri again.
     
  19. paidinfull

    paidinfull GC Hall of Fame

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    Thought the post I was responding to had a certain captain obvious sentiment to it as well. I just doubled down on the obviousness of such an obvious statement. Now we're going around in circles to clarify the obviousness of what was obviously somewhat of a joke to begin with. :confused::confused:

    I do not think the poster you were responding to was suggesting the team shouldn't play hard, and I don't think what he said was a "dangerous assumption" for a fan to make on a message board. Was that not obvious?

    Yes, I was touching back on the previous joke. I like how you reworded your question this time. I'm good with another bye. I think I'll root for everyone to lose and the world to burn around our trophies.

    You're welcome to just ignore my sillyness, but I usually have time to participate in a good circle jerk if that's what you're after. :ninja3::ninja3:
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2025 at 4:38 PM
  20. plantado

    plantado All American

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    FLORIDA!!!!