Why Tariffs Were Really Dropped

Nah, he'll have silly little Newsmax headlinies to link and make silly comments about. All in pursuit of the highest goal of all: "Owning Libs".

 

Market “collapse” lol. Tell me you don’t invest without saying so. Even before the deals to postpone the tariffs were in place the market wasn’t even down 2%. Hyperbolic statement of a market collapse doesn’t make it so.

 

Can you point me to the last fiscal policy change that caused that sort of a market dive immediately upon market opening?

 

That’s not the issue. You said the market collapsed. I said it didn’t and no definition of collapse is a 2% or less move.

 

Probably when the Congress failed to pass TARP at the start of Great Recession. Market dropped 800. But that was a much bigger shock in % terms at the time (and was going to be tip of iceberg towards near total financial collapse).

I’m too lazy to go back and do the exact math, but that would be equivalent to something like a 2000 or even 3000 point drop today. I think his point is just that 500 isn’t really a “collapse”. I agree with that. I’ve said several times the market never seemed to fully take the threat seriously or else 2000 in a day would be the starting point. 500 just isn’t that big of a move these days.

 

"Collapse" isn't a technical term with a falsifiable definition. There isn't an agreed upon percentage that constitutes use of the term. Given that, the usage of the term in a contextual fashion, i.e., that a fiscal policy had an exceedingly large (relative) and negative impact on market value, seems appropriate.

 

I'd agree on the TARP failure being a bigger fiscal collapse. I'd imagine there might be a Covid fiscal policy collapse at some point as well (although didn't go back and research it). But when we are having to compare the financial market reactions to things like Covid and the financial meltdown, we are seeing that it was a pretty big negative reaction (acknowledging that it likely contained some lingering uncertainty about whether it would stick- which turned out to be smart).

 

If you just buy on the days CNBC runs its “markets in turmoil” headline your performance would be outstanding.

I love the volatility because the implied moves on some of these stocks lends itself to quick action with options.