Big Short Bets

With interest rates still pretty high, there isn’t much penalty for “sitting in cash”. People should only have exposure they are comfortable with.

Actually going short is a different beast, just as with any leveraged bet you have to be right AND with timing or else there can be extreme losses.

 

If there’s one thing financial markets love, it’s the phrase “Political Instability”.

 

Thank you for the blessings

 

10x more is a big swing against. I wonder if they closed them after the drop after DeepSeek or are they still in play.

 

If they opened them right before Deepseek and quickly closed out, that would suggest insider trading… insider trading based on a Chinese leak.

Not that there aren’t plenty of reasons to watch domestic issues w/…. concern.

 

Cash rates are in the mid 4’s and with inflation at 2.5-3% you aren’t really making progress. Safety comes with sacrifice.

I agree however that everyone’s situation is different. Tactically shifting allocations is a far more successful strategy than going in and out of the market wholesale.

 

It was 100% market manipulation. It became widespread news right when NVDA went into its quiet period. NVDA is trading at like 27x next years earnings. They announce on 2/26 and expect this stock to be back in the 145-150 range by March.

 

A large part was likely due to the huge run up for the last 6 months.
I also wouldn’t put it past these guys knowing about the Chinese AI before it was announced.

Personally I’ve been trimming big gainers since the end of December, gotta take profit sometime.
Sold CRWD
GEV
MRVL and half my PLTR before this last week.

I don't sell short, too costly if you're wrong and haven't learned enough to trade options.

 

Time to buy if you are brave and selective.

 

Potentially unlimited loses…

 

Wait until Reddit Wall Street bets & roaring kitty get ahold of those shorts.

 

Yeah I know, bought it at like 19 so I was deep in the green. Still kept half. Too may times I’ve held to squeeze out a few more points and gotten rocked.

Valuations are pushed so much a less than stellar outlook and they get taken to the wood shed.

 

I just took a small position on NVIDA also, waiting to see what else shakes out before I go fully in. I agree with your assessment however.

 

I used calls to play Palantir and that was successful. Missed all that move last year. Nvidia calls (strikes 125-145) are all interesting at different timeframes. Also bought some Tesla calls today that should pay nicely over the coming weeks. I love volatility.

 

I kept thinking about selling it last year but the Mo was strong. They just kept beating and raising.
Had to finally take profit.
Market will be choppy for a while IMHO.