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My suggestion to Coach Billy Napier

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by doctorg8r, Jan 22, 2025.

  1. doctorg8r

    doctorg8r GC Hall of Fame

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    Billy Napier has momentum, and he needs to build on it! He needs to divest for success. He simply cannot achieve winning in the SEC and changing nothing on offense. The offense and the defense will have to make exceptional gains, but the offense needs to really excel! That means doing something radically different from the last three years! In 2022 the Gators averaged 29.5 ppg; 28.4 ppg in 2023; and, 28.3 ppg in 2024. Their opponents averaged nearly the same amount of ppg as the Gators. That indicates the Gators were in most games but could not always get a W. In 2024, opponents averaged a reduction of 23.08 ppg against the Gators. In 2025, the ypg allowed by the defense needs to decrease even more, while the offensive ypg needs to dramatically increase.

    In comparison, the 1996 Gators averaged 46.6 ppg;
    in 2006, 29.7 ppg; in 2008, 43.6 ppg (the 2006 ppg average surprised me). Contrast that with only allowing Gator opponents 16.8 ppg in 1996; 13.5 ppg in 2006; and, 12.9 ppg in 2008. Clearly, statistics indicate quite a disparity of ppg scored vs ppg allowed.

    In 2025, the Gators are, allegedly in the top 10. In order to justify and maintain that ranking, the Gators will have to really up their game. What does that mean? The Gators will have to average more ppg while holding opponents to fewer ppg. Consequently, the Gators will have to play considerably better in all three phases for that to happen. So far, nothing jumps out for me that the Gators football squad can do that next year. There are 2025 expectations for DJ to possibly be Heisman worthy. That means having 3,040 and 27 touchdowns, alongside maintaining lower interceptions—ideally below the historic mark of 10. A completion percentage above 61.1%, and ratings surpassing the benchmark of 156.6 (this comes from collegefootballpoll.com, and I am not sure if they are a reliable source). In comparison, though, Danny Wuerfful threw for 3,625 yards and 39 td's. Obviously, for DJ to have heisman numbers, he will have to have a great supporting cast as well as much-improved playcalling! From what is quite evident from BN's statistics over three years, expectations are extremely high--perhaps too high--for the 2025 season. My heart wants to believe it, my head tells me that is an enormous jump for year four in the BN era. I welcome the thoughts of others.
     
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  2. crl

    crl GC Hall of Fame

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    Mine would be to retire. That's what I would do with that much money. :)
     
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  3. ShadowCat

    ShadowCat All American

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    That's a lot of words to point out the obvious!
     
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  4. scooterp

    scooterp GC Hall of Fame

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    Doc, I love your spirit but I’m sure BN knows we need get more yards, more points and have a strong defense. If we play like we did the last 8 games (sans TX), we will be very competitive.

    I don’t know what the magic # is. But I’m thinking an 8 point swing in either direction would do it. 33 ppg and <20 on defense would be good enough to win a lot of games. 9-3 isn’t a stretch.
     
  5. Endless Excuses

    Endless Excuses GC Hall of Fame

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    Mine would be you've got a Ferrari quit putting around at 25mph and get someone in here who really knows how to drive the car (and it's not him). It certainly didn't hurt OSU to bring in Kelly did it?
     
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  6. archigator_96

    archigator_96 GC Hall of Fame

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    Not when you look at the defense that year. It was downright nasty. I think we held people to around 13 points per game. Even the best team ever put together, the Buckeyes, could only get 14.
     
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  7. Distant Gator

    Distant Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    That Buckeye team had the Heisman trophy winner, btw... Don't forget that.
    And actually Ohio State only scored 7 on our defense. The first 7 was scored on a KO return.
    They also only gained 82 yards of offense.
     
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  8. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    DJ's development is the biggest factor and there are no guarantees. We need improvement all the way around. We dont play an easy schedule and most games should be contested.There may not be much difference in 6 or 10wins. Itll be a big difference on paper but to decidedly win 10 games, we will have to be a much better team all the way around.
     
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  9. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm not sure our 2025 Gators will be quite ready to be compared to 3 of UF's all-time great teams. The key in 2025 will be maintaining the disruptive D that we saw in the last half of 2024. We lost significant talent off that unit, so it won't be automatic. I believe the offense should be better even if Napier retains play-calling duties just because of the experience our young guns got in 2024.
     
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  10. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Aye Doc, it must be the off season.
     
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  11. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    We did lose our two best receivers.
     
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  12. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Hi Doc. I certainly agree CBN has a bit of momentum.
    "and he needs to build on it"

    For sure, it has been a long time since UF won 4 in a row and a bowl. The end of season, early signing day run was pretty special.
    I don't ever recall UF starting so far behind and signing so many kids in such a short space of time.

    So catastrophe on the field (W-L record) was averted after tamu, And catastrophe in recruiting was averted with a late season run and signing day close.

    But for many of us UF fans, we are EXHAUSTED with these "near catastrophe" scenarios.

    Having posted that:
    "In comparison, the 1996 Gators averaged 46.6 ppg;
    in 2006, 29.7 ppg; in 2008, 43.6 ppg (the 2006 ppg average surprised me). Contrast that with only allowing Gator opponents 16.8 ppg in 1996; 13.5 ppg in 2006; and, 12.9 ppg in 2008. Clearly, statistics indicate quite a disparity of ppg scored vs ppg allowed."

    Doc, you are only mentioning National Championship teams here, all of which went 12 - 1. Is that "Fair?". IMO it's "fair" if your expectation is winning the playoffs next year. Which is A very steep ask.

    Sure, the buzz in Gator circles is" "Success = Lagway at QB". Do whatever is necessary now. Go all in.
    BTW I agree, the time is "now". But we may differ on the end game. UF's success or failure should not come down to one position group (QB).

    While I want UF to go unbeaten (every year) what I want does not matter, what "is" matters.

    "expectations are extremely high--perhaps too high--for the 2025 season."

    YEP - I agree with this statement, considering the schedule, and considering UF's recruiting and transfer portal performance so far under Napier.

    I am no expert but when one considers UF has been behind in in the talent acquisition business since CBN arrived, to about half a dozen other SEC teams, I don't see the metrics (recruiting and portal) translating in UF equality with the upper tier SEC teams yet.

    So that puts additional pressure on DJL and the coaching staff to "equalize" the talent situation when facing the top SEC teams.

    I don't see it myself. Not in terms of winning the playoffs. I think the best possible scenario is making the playoffs (ala TN and taking a bow out early), and that's a real stretch. Improving on 8 - 5 is going to be tough.

    I hope UF surprises me. I am in the David Waters camp, that if UF goes 8 - 5 or 9 - 4 that Gator Nation should not tear it all down and hire a new coach.
    I think if UF makes a serious playoff run it is more likely in 26 and that's if DJL is still around and Nape is able to continue to "improve" the talent acquisition agenda.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2025
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  13. SmootyGator

    SmootyGator GC Hall of Fame

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    To be fair, it was 84 yards... IIRC. :devil:
     
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  14. scooterp

    scooterp GC Hall of Fame

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    ^what he said
     
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  15. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Thanks Scooterp, I was half expecting ET to ban me for a year after that diatribe!
     
  16. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    I went to Arizona for the game, my first and only "in attendance" football UF National Championship.
    Shelly Meyer running around in her UF cheerleader outfit getting Gators fired up.

    Oh it was sweet. All those Bucknuts were so sure they were going to beat us down! "HA"
     
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  17. gatorwalrus

    gatorwalrus GC Hall of Fame

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    Doc offseason threads...
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    Agreed, going 8-5 will be just as tough and maybe tougher than 2024. I'm concerned about our defense going into 2025. They finally started playing the way we had hoped for toward the end of 2024, but they lost a lot of talent and can that be seamlessly replaced? I don't know about 2026 either because it looks like we'll be breaking in a new OL for that season.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2025
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  19. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Doc has the disease man, just like us, maybe worse!
    I love it, talking season means we are unbeaten and ready to win it all!!!!
     
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  20. doctorg8r

    doctorg8r GC Hall of Fame

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    Oh, sorry, I was referring to the offensive ppg. And, yes, that defense was nasty! That was the year we beat Ohio State 41-14! Simply, surprised by the 29 ppg!
     
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