War in Ukraine

Um, what?

 

In terms of any political collapse, I’ll just say that these things, when they happen, occur slowly then suddenly. The most contemporary example we have is Syria. No one was predicting that regime’s collapse in October, and by no one I mean the most well-informed members of our government with access to the best information. Then by Thanksgiving it was an inexorable landslide. I don’t agree with those who say Russia’s economic collapse (which would more or less guarantee a political collapse) is “imminent.” But I also don’t agree with those who assert that Russia can sustain its current conditions “indefinitely,” by which they mean forever. No one, even the best informed people inside Russia, can tell you to a certainty how much longer the Russian people and armed forces will tolerate their current conditions, but without a doubt the risk goes up with every passing day.

Oh, I meant to put this in my earlier post. Let’s both be grownups and admit that “no limits” language is there for the tourists. Of course, there are limits. Russia is dead to China if Russia uses a nuke. That’s a limit. China would never consider sending an expeditionary force to help Russia as North Korea has. That’s a limit. China does not provide Russia with munitions, even though China has them in excess and Russia very badly needs them. That is a limit. Like any hard-core realist power, China makes its decisions based exclusively on fear, honor, and interest. When Russia no longer suits China’s ends, China will turn on them in a heartbeat.

 

interesting

Putin's Military Purge 'Unnerved' Russian Elites: Report

The arrests and firing of several high-profile associates of former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu by Kremlin authorities have sparked deep anxieties among members of the Russian elite connected to the current head of Moscow's Security Council, according to a new report.

A slew of well-known figures working in the Russian government and the military were arrested and axed from their posts last year. Western analysts have noted that schisms within the Kremlin's upper echelons are increasingly catching international attention as the grinding war effort in Ukraine drags on.
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The "purge" of senior officials in the defense ministry and military-industrial complex "turned into the dismantling of the entire elite group that had developed around Shoigu over the decades," the report said.

"The lack of clear boundaries for the new waves of arrests and the uncertainty surrounding Shoigu himself are clearly making his entire clan nervous," it added. "Shoigu himself, although he has so far been kept out of harm's way by personal guarantees from the president, is forced to watch what is happening without any possibility of protecting his inner circle or stopping the new arrests."

 

There will be some busy balconies in the coming months

 

Haven’t you heard that history is written by the victors ?



Fun fact: England commenced bombing German civilians six months prior to Germany bombing English civilians.

 

I’m sure if England had just held off, cooler heads would have prevailed.

 

What are we talking about now?

 

China Pounces on Russia's Fire Sale of Prized Assets - Newsweek

A Chinese firm will purchase a coal mine in Russia that was on the verge of bankruptcy.

The move has been described as another instance of China capitalizing on Russia's economic turbulence and comes amid complications in the countries' "no limits" trading partnership that has developed during Moscow's war with Ukraine.

Russian state news agency Interfax reported that an unnamed Chinese company would buy Inskaya Mine in the Kemerovo region that faced claims from Russia's Federal Tax Service (FTS) of over $2 million and complaints from workers of unpaid wages.

In December, Russia reportedly sold its stakes in certain Kazakh uranium deposits to Chinese-owned companies. This week, Chinese ports refused entry to tankers carrying Russian oil that had been sanctioned by the U.S.