War in Ukraine

I feel like that's certainly the pickle he's in.

Can't stop the war for fear of economic collapse.

Can't continue the war for fear of economic collapse.

 

Yes, I do believe that Trump is just making 600,000 up. Going into talks with Putin he needs to create the perception that Washington’s proxy war has not been a total failure.

This way Trump can accede to all Moscow’s demands while making it look like a plucky Ukraine stopped a rapacious Russia from conquering the whole of Europe.

 

Yes, I posted to this effect at the time. Post #29806:

Trump was clearly putting Putin on notice, but as I said then (to which you agreed later), the 600,000 number was probably an intentional overstatement by Trump. For all we know, Trump was spouting that figure to play to Zelenskyy's ego. I'm merely looking at the situation on the ground and typically the side which is losing key battleground is at a slight to significant disadvantage at the negotiating table. When combined with the fact Russia simply has more inherent resources at its disposal to fight this war, that only enhances Putin's upper hand.

No doubt Russia have and still are sustaining massive and heavy losses to wage this campaign. But as I've pointed out so many times before, if the Russians think it's in their "security interests," this number of deaths are (as Stalin once deemed it) a mere statistic. That Russia are streamlining operations (Assad) and bringing in more fodder (North Korean troops) tells me they take the war effort very seriously and won't bat an eye to continue the grind.

I think Trump will end the war soon and he'll likely do so by throwing so much money at Ukraine, they can't refuse. The money will have conditions that it is only to be used on rebuilding infrastructure and other humanitarian endeavors within Ukraine's borders in order to rebuild that country into a pristine, modern eastern European country. My guess is that what Ukraine doesn't get in military assurances or alliances will be made up for with economic alliances and trillions of dollars to rebuild their war-torn country.

Frankly, if I was Zelenskyy, I'd milk that for all it's worth and set his country up where they have a flourishing market economy, without the mass corruption. In reality, that is the best way to secure Ukraine moving forwrad. Prime the economic pump in Kyiv and then they modernize their military on the back end. Would be important to ensure there are no rearmament or military spending restrictions upon the central government of Ukraine as well.

If you think about it, Ukraine's inclusion into NATO is almost pointless anyway. If there is a ceasefire peace deal struck and Russia later violates it in a significant way, that will almost assuredly lead to direct NATO involvement to some degree. NATO is becoming more symbolic for Ukraine at this stage.

 

If I read you correctly, Trump can end the war by bribing Zelensky to accede to Russia’s demands ?

 

I had not read what Trump actually said when I opined it was an overstatement. Going off what someone posted here, I assumed he said 600,000 dead, which I then said might account for all fatalities on both sides, but certainly was not an accurate number for Russian military killed in action. When I read Trump's actual words, he clearly was referring to all Russian killed, wounded, and missing. And that number is pretty close to the mark. The only thing squishy in it is what constitutes a "wounded" person. That number is difficult to generate accurately even when you have full access to records. I think that statistic comes from our understanding of how many Russian personnel have been wounded so badly they had to be evacuated from theater, but of course it is very difficult to account for how many of those returned to duty in some manner or even how many of them died later and should be counted in the KIA column. However, our idea of how many Russians have been KIA as well as how many Russia cannot account for is within about a 10% margin of error. You may not believe that yet, but the people in whom you place confidence to end this war do believe that. You also earlier stated that there was no effective Russian domestic resistance to the war. That is, of course, what Russia wants you to believe, and you can find Russian sources to back up that opinion if you go looking for them. But Trump, Waltz, and Kellogg no longer (if they ever did) believe that is the case, either. As I have stated many times, I have no problem with trying to facilitate a diplomatic solution, and I hope one is successful. But I think you will be very surprised to learn who is the more vulnerable party in these negotiations when the time comes.

 

Again (how many times must I repost ?) this virulently anti-Russian news source’s estimates of Russian KIA. Compare to the 26.5 million Russia was said to have lost in the last war it considered existential …

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

BTW, I’ve looked everywhere for the site’s estimates of Ukrainian losses and can’t find them. *sarcasm*

 

Clearest evidence yet of North Korean troops in the SMO …

 

Ukraine has captured a few wounded North Korean soldiers, according to reports that I've read, but they all died from their wounds.

 

Once again, Russia (both the citizens and the leadership) knows that this war is not existential, even with thousands of Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine is not able to march on Moscow, or take any major city in Russia. Russians may not be especially bright, but they are not idiots. They know a land grab when they see one.

 

Due to his buddy Putin. If djt expect Ukraine to bend the knee to whatever he decides to grant Putin he is going to be surprised. He can't dictate terms to Ukraine

 

At what point is it an act of war?
What is an appropriate response? This is at least third incident

 

That is a reality.

 

Will djt lift sanctions if the EU doesn't agree? Will djt be Putin's rep to push for sanctions relief on political side?

 

I read report that they are shooting their own rather than be captured, like Japanese in ww2. Who knows what they have been told what will happen if captured

 

Chechen warlord declares ‘blood feud’ on Russian MPs for supposed assassination plot – POLITICO

How about this guy. He could take some Russian cities

 

And before they could take their pictures apparently.

 

I kindly ask you to Google how many Russian commercial ships have sunk under mysterious conditions lately and ask yourself if this is the world’s greatest historical coincidence.

 

Well then, you need to somehow get word to ordinary Russians. They’re enlisting at the rate of 1,000 a day.

Stupid populace delivering a hard message to the West. In its fevered efforts to see Putin ousted, and Russia enfeebled, the West has realized the limits of its powers.

 

Remedial reading for people who believe history started in 2022 …

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine
— Scott Horton —

 

The title sounds enticing--alas, the link does not work. Or rather, there doesn't appear to be a link at all.

Can you repost the link/post link to the (presumably) referenced article?