War in Ukraine

Putin makes his case for why Russia should be broken up into smaller countries after they are defeated by Ukraine. Apparently, Putin believes that Russians are a bloodthirsty people that needs to have bullets whistling past their temples for them to not be "bored". Yes, Putin is waxing nostalgic about bullets whistling past Russian heads. He seems to have seen one action movie too many. Peace is just too boring for Russian barbarians. Building a better world and cooperating with neighbors are not on the agenda. His speech seems to be mostly fiction, but he seems to believe in his own fiction. He's gonna miss this war when it's over. (A little too much vodka before the speech.)

One interesting part of the speech. In this version of Putin's lies, Ukraine is solely responsible for causing the war. There is no threat from NATO involved in the justification. Maybe that's just the vodka talking, but he seems to be saying that he's o.k. with Ukraine joining NATO after they win the war.

Opinion - Putin’s press conference showed he is committed to depravity

Obviously, the number of times that Putin says "horror" is indicative of how much blood and gore his people need in their lives to enjoy themselves.

 

Even the most western-friendly sources are telling us Russian forces had their best month in two years last month. Russia have recaptured large areas in Kursk. Since October up until now, the Russians have been advancing in Kursk and are making their largest gains of the war in the Donbas. I wanted to address each of your points, but we're getting into the weeds.

If Russian forces are advancing at their fastest pace since the beginning of the war (and all accounts indicate that is the case), why would we assume that we now have an upper hand in the situation? Because Assad got ran out of Syria? If we're being honest, that's probably a case of addition by subtraction. Russia cut their losses and they're not carrying the baggage of Syria anymore. Russia streamlining and going all in on Ukraine seems to be yielding results. Again, western sources are verifying these gains. We can't assume a position of strength in the negotiation when the enemy is making gains at their fastest clip in two years. The other stuff is just noise.

 

Putin’s fault …

Germany’s Economic and Political Suicide – The Daily Sceptic

 

Ah, yes! The unnamed and unquoted sources! What could be better or more reliable? These mystery sources are "western"! That is even more trustworthy! No westerner would dare quote the Kremlin or parrot Putin's talking points. This is literally the most accurate news you can get! Right?

 

Finland seized an oil ship (from Russia's shadow fleet) after it is believed to have damaged an undersea electrical cable.

Finland seizes ship carrying Russian oil after undersea cable cut

 

Unnamed Sources —> bad

Ukrainian Sources — > good

 

Okay, I could understand you challenging the trends if we were talking about, say, Sullivan’s assessment of the situation. I more than understand it. But now we’re talking about Trump, Waltz, and Kellogg assessing the situation differently from you. I find it curious that doesn’t give you pause and make you reanalyze.

 

Well, I was looking at info from the Guardian. But alas, they do have a known Russian bias. Do you have a legit media source which contradicts the fact Russian forces gained the most ground in two years in October?

 

I mean, it's undeniable. Most of the main players who report gains for either side are pretty much on the same page with this. The reason Russian gains are so consequential is that the more Russia gains, the less likely it will be that Western politicians want to throw money at a losing endeavor. This is likely the real reason there was hesitation on the last big military aid package earlier this year. We got burned on the spring counteroffensive that never was. Ukraine hasn't gained net territory in almost two years and that's with two large aid packages. Like UF boosters, congresspeople don't like throwing good money after bad.

 

Yeah, but, again, the guy you are 100% behind to negotiate an end to this war no longer (if he ever did) sees it the way you just described. He sees your assessment as deniable. Waltz and Kellogg see your assessment as deniable. They see Russia as the vulnerable party. I know what they are seeing that you are not: the classified data. But what are you seeing that they are not?

 

Which quotes from Trump / Kellogg are you referencing?

 

I don't dispute that Russia is gaining ground faster than it was before. You are drawing the wrong conclusion from that--namely, that this means that Russia will win the war anytime soon. It is a possibility, of course, but not likely. They are still advancing at a (faster) snail's pace, while Russia's economy is deteriorating at a rapid pace. Ukraine is now fighting a defensive war, which means more Russians (and North Koreans) are dying to take that ground than Ukrainians are dying defending it. At almost every point during this war, Russia's casualty rates have been greater than Ukraine's. Russia has already lost most of its most experienced and capable troops.

Got it?

 

You already know the answer to this. On 8 December, Trump (to the Kremlin’s horror) publicly cited that Russia has suffered 600,000 dead, wounded, and missing. Now that’s a number that the pro-Russian crowd has said is off by as many as 10 times. Do you think that Trump was making that number up? Do you think he did not consult with Waltz and Kellogg, who had just recently been read in, before publicly asserting it? Do you think he had no specific intent in saying that number out loud? He also pointed out in the same remarks that Russia was unable — not unwilling; unable — to come to Assad’s aid because of how badly Russia has been hurt in this war. Again, do you think that was not deliberate?

 

I certainly expect Trump to be able to end the war between Russia and Ukraine- way to many people have already died in this senseless war. Way-way to many.

 

Well, this is a shock. Russia's oil ship that is suspected of cutting the electrical cable was full of spy equipment. The power outage it caused was 658 MW.

Russian-Linked Oil Tanker Suspected Of Sabotage Was Brimming With Spy Equipment: Report

 

Why do you think Trump will end the war? How will he do it?

Do you think Putin wants to end the war?

 

I was more intrigued on how it was senseless. Just not enough to ask

 

I heard an interesting argument by Anne Applebaum that Putin has created a military economy now, and stopping the war deprives Russia of its current economic and political purpose, and as such Putin will not want to end it.

 

Well, not without the sanctions also ending as a condition of ending the war. A frozen conflict where sanctions continue but the physical fighting does not might be nearly as disastrous as defeat in the field. We have a lot more leverage over Russia than we realize.

 

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

There is also a reason that Iran has been extremely quiet since the Israelis took out their S-300 Air defense systems. They know they cannot count on any help from Russia for at least the next three months. That means they are going to have some difficult decisions to make.