Fed acted the way I expected them to anticipating massive deficit spending and future policy related inflationary pressures. Took it on the chin on the market today, wishing I would have moved more to cash. All funny numbers at this point. thought it would be good to set up a thread to track the impacts of the decisions that are forthcoming and keep a summary of how they go down. Dow plummets 1,100 points after Fed scales back plans for interest rate cuts
I don’t think they are looking too much at what the next admin “might do”. More at recent trends in data over the last 3 months. We have been deficit spending like mad the last 2-3 years and it didn’t stop their rate cuts. Many smart econ guys felt like the market was pricing in too many rate cuts and today it payed for that. I’ve got plenty of dry powder as it’s not unusual to have a late year/ early January sell off. The phrase taper tantrum comes to mind here. Plus the market has been on a tear for the most part since Nov 4 it’s been due for a pull back. Now is the time to shop for “deals” but beware the falling knife.
I suspected this might happen sooner or later, so I sold a big chunk of my mutual fund last week. It dropped 15% in the last few days. Lucky timing.
1 of the drivers of inflation is expected inflation. So, what's happing right now reflects what they next admin might do. True story. A dude was falling short on getting his bonus for the year. He sent out a msg to his customers that a X% price increase was coming on 1/1. Of course, that price increase never has to happen to affect demand right now.
far from a biden apologists mut much of that was wither covid (slightly overdone by both parties) or real investment in real chit that will pay a long term dividend with infrastructure and onshoring critical industry knowhow and capacity. not just tax cuts for the rich and tariffs for the minions
Fire Linda Khan, the first anti-trust advocate in 30 years who actually met a merger she didn't like, so we can have less competition. that will help prices rent - ftc suit agaisnt rent data accumulator/price fixer groceries - ftc against monster merger to further reduce competition lot of other items ftc is involved in will collapse. M & E willa ccelerate, profits will be wrung, competetion will go down, prices will go up. Yeah MAGA Billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk calls for firing of FTC chair Lina Khan - Raw Story The world's richest man on Thursday joined the billionaire chorus calling for the firing of Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan, a consumer and antitrust champion whose aggressive actions against corporate consolidation have made her a target of prominent executives and Republicans in Congress. ........................................... One of the Republicans who has praised Khan is Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who said in August that the FTC chair has "been very smart about trying to go after some of these big tech companies that monopolize what we're allowed to say in our own country." Under Khan's leadership, the FTC has filed suit against Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft and has taken concrete action to fix problems that Trump has claimed to want to solve. American Economic Liberties Project (AELP), an anti-monopoly advocacy group that has celebrated Khan's work, said Thursday that Musk—who has spent at least $118 million supporting Trump's presidential campaign—"joins a long list of oligarchs who want [the FTC chair] fired for using her office to serve the public, not the rich and well-connected."
“I expect my tax cut….” Yep, that’s the American way. Don’t want to or care about paying our way so just borrow more money and pass the debt on to our children. Dear Leader effectively uses this “ I get mine”.
We've been deficit spending a lot longer than 2-3 years. Also, plenty of economists have expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the next administration's policies, it's definitely a factor.
Well, as long as Trump doesn't threaten to retake the Panama Canal, I think we'll be o.k. Trump threatens to retake Panama Canal DOH!
I read something from Morgan Stanley that said they were looking at a 0.3% bump in inflation based on Trump’s possible tariffs. We have been deficit spends more than 2-3 years. Post CoViD it’s really been big though.
Leave this legal nugget with wide long impact here https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...oost-transparency-trim-volatility-2024-12-23/ In June, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to federal regulatory power by overturning a 1984 precedent that had given deference to government agencies in interpreting laws they administer. That precedent arose from a ruling involving oil company Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab that had called for judges to defer to reasonable federal agency interpretations of U.S. laws deemed to be ambiguous.
market hates uncertainty Trump Is Already Rattling the Stock Market. Buckle Up. While that may sound like a tempest in a teapot sitting on a table in Mar a Lago rather than a problem for Wall Street, the issue is the razor-thin margins Republicans have in both houses of Congress, as Essaye noted on Tuesday. How can investors believe they will deliver on their pro-growth campaign promises if the party is consumed with internal squabbling before even coming into power? There is infighting aplenty. In the less than two months since the election, there have been four separate occasions when Republican messiness affected the markets—November’s controversial cabinet nominations were followed by the threat of new or escalating tariffs on major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China. A near shutdown of the government right before Christmas was only averted at the 11th hour, and now there is the tiff over H-1B visas. “None of these events are big enough to derail this market, but they are a near-constant reminder of the drama Trump can manufacture (either directly or indirectly) on seemingly mundane functions of the government,” Essaye wrote.
