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Trumponomics

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Dec 18, 2024.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Fed acted the way I expected them to anticipating massive deficit spending and future policy related inflationary pressures. Took it on the chin on the market today, wishing I would have moved more to cash. All funny numbers at this point. thought it would be good to set up a thread to track the impacts of the decisions that are forthcoming and keep a summary of how they go down.

    Dow plummets 1,100 points after Fed scales back plans for interest rate cuts
     
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  2. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    I don’t think they are looking too much at what the next admin “might do”. More at recent trends in data over the last 3 months.
    We have been deficit spending like mad the last 2-3 years and it didn’t stop their rate cuts.

    Many smart econ guys felt like the market was pricing in too many rate cuts and today it payed for that.

    I’ve got plenty of dry powder as it’s not unusual to have a late year/ early January sell off.
    The phrase taper tantrum comes to mind here.

    Plus the market has been on a tear for the most part since Nov 4 it’s been due for a pull back.
    Now is the time to shop for “deals” but beware the falling knife.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2024
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  3. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    I suspected this might happen sooner or later, so I sold a big chunk of my mutual fund last week. It dropped 15% in the last few days. Lucky timing.
     
  4. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    At least our resident "a recession is coming" posters are on hiatus
     
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  5. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    1 of the drivers of inflation is expected inflation. So, what's happing right now reflects what they next admin might do. True story. A dude was falling short on getting his bonus for the year. He sent out a msg to his customers that a X% price increase was coming on 1/1. Of course, that price increase never has to happen to affect demand right now.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2024
  6. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    far from a biden apologists mut much of that was wither covid (slightly overdone by both parties) or real investment in real chit that will pay a long term dividend with infrastructure and onshoring critical industry knowhow and capacity. not just tax cuts for the rich and tariffs for the minions
     
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  7. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Fire Linda Khan, the first anti-trust advocate in 30 years who actually met a merger she didn't like, so we can have less competition. that will help prices

    rent - ftc suit agaisnt rent data accumulator/price fixer

    groceries - ftc against monster merger to further reduce competition

    lot of other items ftc is involved in will collapse. M & E willa ccelerate, profits will be wrung, competetion will go down, prices will go up. Yeah MAGA

    Billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk calls for firing of FTC chair Lina Khan - Raw Story

    The world's richest man on Thursday joined the billionaire chorus calling for the firing of Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan, a consumer and antitrust champion whose aggressive actions against corporate consolidation have made her a target of prominent executives and Republicans in Congress.
    ...........................................

    One of the Republicans who has praised Khan is Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who said in August that the FTC chair has "been very smart about trying to go after some of these big tech companies that monopolize what we're allowed to say in our own country."

    Under Khan's leadership, the FTC has filed suit against Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft and has taken concrete action to fix problems that Trump has claimed to want to solve.

    American Economic Liberties Project (AELP), an anti-monopoly advocacy group that has celebrated Khan's work, said Thursday that Musk—who has spent at least $118 million supporting Trump's presidential campaign—"joins a long list of oligarchs who want [the FTC chair] fired for using her office to serve the public, not the rich and well-connected."
     
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  8. slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    Libby Trump wants to eliminate debt ceiling. LOL. The GOP is on the twister mat.
     
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  9. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    I’ll certainly agree with you here.
     
  10. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    I expect my tax cut will outstrip the inflation level. I dont buy that many eggs. Bring it on Trump!
     
  11. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    “I expect my tax cut….” Yep, that’s the American way. Don’t want to or care about paying our way so just borrow more money and pass the debt on to our children. Dear Leader effectively uses this “ I get mine”.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2024 at 9:08 AM
  12. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    We've been deficit spending a lot longer than 2-3 years. Also, plenty of economists have expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the next administration's policies, it's definitely a factor.
     
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  13. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Well, as long as Trump doesn't threaten to retake the Panama Canal, I think we'll be o.k.

    Trump threatens to retake Panama Canal

    DOH!
     
  14. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    I read something from Morgan Stanley that said they were looking at a 0.3% bump in inflation based on Trump’s possible tariffs.

    We have been deficit spends more than 2-3 years. Post CoViD it’s really been big though.
     
  15. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    But just think how much in transit feee we can collect
     
  16. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Leave this legal nugget with wide long impact here

    https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...oost-transparency-trim-volatility-2024-12-23/

    In June, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to federal regulatory power by overturning a 1984 precedent that had given deference to government agencies in interpreting laws they administer. That precedent arose from a ruling involving oil company Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab that had called for judges to defer to reasonable federal agency interpretations of U.S. laws deemed to be ambiguous.