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  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

November CPI

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, Dec 11, 2024.

  1. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Broke is broke, how can you be “more broke”?
     
  2. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    OPEC produces for way, way less than most everyone else. Something like $15/ barrel.
    If they want they can boost production and still make billions on volume and crush higher cost producers like US shale guys. They’ve done it before.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Easy. Being broke and unemployed.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  4. SotaGator

    SotaGator Senior

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    And let's hope the next admin doesn't cause stagflation -- you know, the thing that is caused by big supply shocks (tariffs for example) and easy monetary policy. Could easily happen with a free-wheeling, undisciplined approach to the national economy.
    I am not hearing a concrete economic plan coming from the incoming -- just "concepts". That just won't cut it.
     
  5. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Take the 70s out of your sample and recalculate that. 3% annual doesn’t look good over any extended period of time.
     
  6. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    why?

    I am not a macro or monetary economist, but I bet 3% annually would be far better for an economy than a 2% avg with sig variance.

    fun fact. inf in the 1930s averaged -2.5%
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2024
  7. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Here's average inflation by POTUS, Eisenhower through Biden. The 80s increased the average with annual inflation over 4%. The 90s were between 2.6% and 2.8%, which is about where we're at now. That's 3 decades with inflation at or above our current levels.
     
  8. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I should have been clearer. My point wasn’t relative to the volatility comparison. My point was the cumulative impact of 3% vs 2% over a 10-30 year time frame is substantial.
     
  9. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    why? I was the 1 who introduced the notion of volatility. You were clear imo.
     
  10. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Jan 6, 2009
    My gut is inflation will continue to cool:

    1. China is experiencing deflation.
    2. CPI housing will continue to trend down
    3. Much of the excess of the pandemic has dried up and supply chain issues cleared up
    4. If Russia/ukraine stabilizes or winds down that is positive for energy and food price decreases

    https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/sto...on-is-likely-to-burst-soon-heres-why-aee88464

    Of course if we go tariff crazy or blow up the deficit even more that could throw a wrench into things.
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  11. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

    We didn’t get consistently to 2% range until 2009.


    1982
    96.5
    6.1%
    1983
    99.6
    3.2%
    1984
    103.9
    4.3%
    1985
    107.6
    3.5%
    1986
    109.6
    1.9%
    1987
    113.6
    3.7%
    1988
    118.3
    4.1%
    1989
    124.0
    4.8%
    1990
    130.7
    5.4%
    1991
    136.2
    4.2%
    1992
    140.3
    3.0%
    1993
    144.5
    3.0%
    1994
    148.2
    2.6%
    1995
    152.4
    2.8%
    1996
    156.9
    2.9%
    1997
    160.5
    2.3%
    1998
    163.0
    1.6%
    1999
    166.6
    2.2%
    2000
    172.2
    3.4%
    2001
    177.1
    2.8%
    2002
    179.9
    1.6%
    2003
    184.0
    2.3%
    2004
    188.9
    2.7%
    2005
    195.3
    3.4%
    2006
    201.6
    3.2%
    2007
    207.3
    2.9%
    2008
    215.3
    3.8%
    2009
    214.5
    -0.4%
    2010
    218.1
    1.6%
    2011
    224.9
    3.2%
    2012
    229.6
    2.1%
    2013
    233.0
    1.5%
    2014
    236.7
    1.6%
    2015
    237.0
    0.1%
    2016
    240.0
    1.3%
    2017
    245.1
    2.1%
    2018
    251.1
    2.4%
    2019
    255.7
    1.8%
    2020
    258.8
    1.2%
    2021
    271.0
    4.7%
    2022
    292.7
    8.0%
    2023
    304.7
    4.1%
    2024
    314.4
    3.2%
     
  12. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    Dow plummets 1,100 points after Fed scales back plans for interest rate cuts

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1,100 points, or 2.5%, the largest drop for the index since August. The dip marked the 10th consecutive day of losses for the Dow, its longest losing streak since 1974.

    The S&P 500 fell nearly 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted about 3.5%.

    The Fed cut interest rates a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, but the central bank also announced a fresh forecast calling for fewer interest rate cuts than expected just a few months ago.

    The Fed's forecast on Wednesday said it anticipates only a half a percentage point of rate cuts next year and another half-percent cut in 2026. In September, the Fed had forecasted a percentage point of cuts next year and an additional half-percent cut in 2026.
     
  13. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Fed is treading light now, they see enough data to be concerned that there is some sticky inflation that keeps poking its head up.
     
  14. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, Biden's economy still sucks... and nothing is going to change overnight even with Trump in the WH.
     
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 2
  15. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Apr 3, 2007
    Reacting to what is going to happen next month. Yet another Pub ruining a strong Dem economy.
     
  16. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    Interesting that two radical lefties disagree with you ….. apparently they think Trump will “change things overnight”

    ;^]

     
    • Funny Funny x 1