OPEC produces for way, way less than most everyone else. Something like $15/ barrel. If they want they can boost production and still make billions on volume and crush higher cost producers like US shale guys. They’ve done it before.
And let's hope the next admin doesn't cause stagflation -- you know, the thing that is caused by big supply shocks (tariffs for example) and easy monetary policy. Could easily happen with a free-wheeling, undisciplined approach to the national economy. I am not hearing a concrete economic plan coming from the incoming -- just "concepts". That just won't cut it.
Take the 70s out of your sample and recalculate that. 3% annual doesn’t look good over any extended period of time.
why? I am not a macro or monetary economist, but I bet 3% annually would be far better for an economy than a 2% avg with sig variance. fun fact. inf in the 1930s averaged -2.5%
Here's average inflation by POTUS, Eisenhower through Biden. The 80s increased the average with annual inflation over 4%. The 90s were between 2.6% and 2.8%, which is about where we're at now. That's 3 decades with inflation at or above our current levels.
I should have been clearer. My point wasn’t relative to the volatility comparison. My point was the cumulative impact of 3% vs 2% over a 10-30 year time frame is substantial.
My gut is inflation will continue to cool: 1. China is experiencing deflation. 2. CPI housing will continue to trend down 3. Much of the excess of the pandemic has dried up and supply chain issues cleared up 4. If Russia/ukraine stabilizes or winds down that is positive for energy and food price decreases https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/sto...on-is-likely-to-burst-soon-heres-why-aee88464 Of course if we go tariff crazy or blow up the deficit even more that could throw a wrench into things.
Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis We didn’t get consistently to 2% range until 2009. 1982 96.5 6.1% 1983 99.6 3.2% 1984 103.9 4.3% 1985 107.6 3.5% 1986 109.6 1.9% 1987 113.6 3.7% 1988 118.3 4.1% 1989 124.0 4.8% 1990 130.7 5.4% 1991 136.2 4.2% 1992 140.3 3.0% 1993 144.5 3.0% 1994 148.2 2.6% 1995 152.4 2.8% 1996 156.9 2.9% 1997 160.5 2.3% 1998 163.0 1.6% 1999 166.6 2.2% 2000 172.2 3.4% 2001 177.1 2.8% 2002 179.9 1.6% 2003 184.0 2.3% 2004 188.9 2.7% 2005 195.3 3.4% 2006 201.6 3.2% 2007 207.3 2.9% 2008 215.3 3.8% 2009 214.5 -0.4% 2010 218.1 1.6% 2011 224.9 3.2% 2012 229.6 2.1% 2013 233.0 1.5% 2014 236.7 1.6% 2015 237.0 0.1% 2016 240.0 1.3% 2017 245.1 2.1% 2018 251.1 2.4% 2019 255.7 1.8% 2020 258.8 1.2% 2021 271.0 4.7% 2022 292.7 8.0% 2023 304.7 4.1% 2024 314.4 3.2%
Dow plummets 1,100 points after Fed scales back plans for interest rate cuts The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1,100 points, or 2.5%, the largest drop for the index since August. The dip marked the 10th consecutive day of losses for the Dow, its longest losing streak since 1974. The S&P 500 fell nearly 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted about 3.5%. The Fed cut interest rates a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, but the central bank also announced a fresh forecast calling for fewer interest rate cuts than expected just a few months ago. The Fed's forecast on Wednesday said it anticipates only a half a percentage point of rate cuts next year and another half-percent cut in 2026. In September, the Fed had forecasted a percentage point of cuts next year and an additional half-percent cut in 2026.
Fed is treading light now, they see enough data to be concerned that there is some sticky inflation that keeps poking its head up.
Yes, Biden's economy still sucks... and nothing is going to change overnight even with Trump in the WH.
Interesting that two radical lefties disagree with you ….. apparently they think Trump will “change things overnight” ;^]
