War in Ukraine

That keeps getting less and less likely as Russia progressively loses leverage in any future negotiations.

 

I hope so.

 

All we can do. Time will tell.

 

Oh cool. You're still talking about Sevastopol.

 

Best article I’ve seen on the consequences for Russia of losing Tartus.

If Putin loses his Tartus base, he may need a ceasefire in Ukraine

 

Russia working n package deals, about to take five key cities at the same time.

 

Biden administration unveils new $988m US military aid package for Ukraine

Doing what they can before the change.

 

Yes, but the Speaker already says the next President should have the lead on any future aid. In principle, I agree with that. Lame ducks should not have a great deal of power to constrain their successor.

 

Whatever happened to the ATACMS strikes ?

Ukraine needs to start a fire at another obscure fuel dump to keep the seals clapping and barking.

 

True. If only we had invoked the DPA two years ago as the military implored the Biden Administration to do.

 

Biden is spending money that has already been allocated by Congress, he's not dipping into Trump's grift fund. There were still be millions for the Secret Service to spend at Trump properties.

 

Totally aware of that and glad he is. He should absolutely be moving as much stuff to Ukraine as has already been authorized. I was referring to attempts to secure new authorizations between now and the Inauguration.

 

He could to an extent. But I don’t see how that’s in his interest. He wants to be the great peacemaker, right? Russia is even more vulnerable today than it was back when Trump won the election. Cutting off aid before he has even gotten the Russians to the table seems counterproductive to his desired end. I don’t see Trump becoming any less self-interested the moment he gets inaugurated. But we will see.

 

Putin Warns West of 'Brink of Global Conflict'

I mean, okay, but is Russia ready for the "global conflict" it wants to threaten? It has its hands full with a neighbor a fraction of its strength and size, its vassal state in the Middle East (home to its only naval base in the Mediterranean) just collapsed, and it keeps falling deeper and deeper into China's debt (China being a far more powerful neighbor than Ukraine).

 

I’m not a fan of this thinking. Trump doesn’t take office until late January. The government doesn’t come to a standstill in the interim, and his policies don’t take effect until he’s in office. There would be nothing wrong with passing new aid packages now (not that I expect that to happen with Republican controlled senate/house). I would agree if you’re talking about doing things like the Wisconsin Governor and Legislature pulled to limit gubernatorial power after their party lost the election for governor.

 

wonder how that would have impacted inflation at the time or if that was a concern

 

Biden has actually done Trump a favor by escalating the situation and letting Ukraine attack into Russia with US weapons. It gives the US more leverage, and Russia more motivation to come to the table and make a palatable agreement. Now whether Trump takes advantage of it, or just decides to play surrender monkey to Putin, I can’t predict.

 

Fascinated to see how the fall of Russian supported regimes in the Middle East impact upcoming negotiations. Russia is really over a barrel right now. Maybe the timing really will work out and Trump can negotiate a decent deal for Ukraine.