War in Ukraine

this is a pretty strong statement..will they call for consultation? i hope they do it before inauguration. will djt answer the call?

Europe fumes as Russia and China accused of 'systematically attacking' Baltic Sea fibre-optic cables

Europe's politicians and police forces are scrambling for answers after two fibre-optic cables under the Baltic Sea were "sabotaged" this week - with Russia and China apparently to blame. On Sunday and Monday, two cables - one linking Finland and Germany, the other between Sweden and Lithuania - were severed, raising suspicions of a malicious attack.

"Russia is systematically attacking European security architecture," the foreign ministers of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Poland said in a joint statement.

"Moscow's escalating hybrid activities against NATO and EU countries are also unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks," they added.

 

new artificial reefs? this seems significant like they are loading up for another big volley of missiles

Russia deploys 24 ships with Kalibr missile carriers to Black Sea

This morning, November 21, nearly two dozen Russian ships deployed for combat duty were spotted in the Black Sea. Five of these ships are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian Navy.

According to the military, these five missile carriers in the Black Sea can launch up to 28 Kalibr missiles in a single volley if fired.
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The Ukrainian Navy also reported that two Russian ships have been spotted in the Mediterranean Sea, one of which is a Kalibr missile carrier capable of launching up to 16 missiles.

 

Russia faces growing crisis of military desertion - ISW

Poor treatment of soldiers by Russian military leadership and an inability to equip them with sufficient weapons are fueling mass desertion in the Russian army, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW referenced an article by the Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii (iStories), which disclosed details from an internal Russian Defense Ministry document. According to the document, over 1,000 Russian servicemen, including officers, deserted from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District). As of April 20, 2024, the number of deserters exceeded the personnel of a battalion.

The iStories noted that the command of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division had appealed to the Defense Ministry for assistance in locating deserters. It also surveyed personnel from the 33rd and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Brigade. They attributed the high desertion rate to heavy losses, failure to deliver promised payments, and the practice of deploying wounded and ill soldiers in assaults.

“These complaints mirror frequent Russian ultranationalist mil blogger complaints about the Russian MoD's poor treatment of Russian military personnel, and the alleged internal document indicates that the MoD is likely aware of the scale of Russian morale problems,” the ISW experts stated.

 

and we have one nominated for one of the top security positions in the USA. Insanity

 

I suspected C & C post. It only makes sense that there would be one there and be utilized by the most privleged. Didn't think they would be hosting the NK leadership group there. That would be a bonus.

North Korean Commanders May Have Been Inside Putin's Compound Hit by Kyiv
A Ukrainian missile strike is thought to have targeted an underground command post in a presidential compound, possibly occupied by high-ranking North Korean military personnel, according to reports.

The strike in Russia's Kursk region was conducted with Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles, precision-guided weapons designed for use against hardened targets. The strike is thought to have targeted a command center for the Russian armed forces located within a presidential compound at the Maryino Estate, according to The Moscow Times.

Newsweek is unable to confirm if North Korean personnel were in the compound and has reached out to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for comment via email. A report in Defense Express said the presence of North Korean forces in the region had led to speculation that "high-profile military personnel, possibly even North Korean generals," were present at the compound.
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One user, Ukraine Battle Map, posted a satellite photo and video of the strike with the caption: "Ukraine struck an underground military command post in Marino, Kursk, located ~40km from Ukraine. The command post was stuck by around a dozen UK Storm Shadow cruise missiles and likely had Russian commanders, and possibly North Korean military officals (Defense Express)."

 

for all those crying about the missiles that we give to Ukraine..a little reality check right here for you

first atacms replacement system already designed and being tested

second atacms missiles in stockpiles are at end of useful life and are scheduled for destruction

Surprise: U.S. Army Testing ATACMS Replacement

The U.S. still maintains a stockpile of older ordnance, but the U.S. military noted that such platforms don't age like fine wine. The systems have a shelf life, and as a result, can lose their reliability over time.

"[These missiles] are already past their prime, so we need to make sure they are still reliable, they still work, and they have the impact pattern and can reach the distances we need so we can still use them," Mia Fitch, test officer with the White Sands Missile Range Materiel Test Directorate, also explained this past summer.

Fitch also explained that Lockheed Martin engineers said the stockpile of missiles "represented some of the oldest ATACMS missiles still in the Army's inventory, which made them older than many of the soldiers operating the launchers.

While tests have been conducted to ensure their reliability, this is a reminder that ordnance provided to Ukraine would likely be destroyed otherwise. Perhaps the ATACMS that past their proverbial sell-by date should be sent to Ukraine – where they're certain to find good use.

 

I don't quite see this point specified in your links, but this war has actually given the ATACMS a new lease on life. They were considered an obsolete weapon system as early as 2019, and once they were expended in training or reached their end-of-service life, they were going to be destroyed with no replacement. Conducting deep attack was going to be the sole province of the Air Force and Navy. At the very least, we have now seen that ATACMS gives the enemy one more thing to have to consider when arranging its softer chess pieces deep in its rear areas.

 

drones and manpads would seem to make close air cover too expensive even if you controlled the sky so it would seem that these would be useful, especially with the significantly improved range. should be easier to maintain and man than aircraft

 

The answer is yes, but I'm afraid that is not as reassuring an answer as you might hope due to some structural issues that have little if anything to do with Trump. First, a "call for consultation" is Article IV, which just doesn't mean a whole lot. It costs Trump literally nothing to "answer that call" in the sense that you mean. In fact, if it was his heart's strongest desire that nothing came of this, then he could best effect that by answering the call. I'm afraid that isn't where the issue ends, though. Even if a party invoked Article V (do not see that happening), the charter leaves it specifically up to each individual member state how they choose to respond. The exact language is "will take the actions it deems necessary [emphasis added] to assist the Ally attacked." Think of this as like a pot-luck dinner with no rules about what to bring. Someone might show up with a beverage for himself, an appetite, and his good humor. Similarly, under the current rules, a member state may fully comply with the letter of Article V by issuing a statement of support. This is one of the reasons I have often felt the North Atlantic Treaty needs to be renegotiated with more specific rules for member states. The language of Article V is just one of the glaring issues that enemy states can exploit.

 

For certain. There are still some key advantages in, for instance, bomber-launched long-range missiles that are not obsolete. I am just in favor of having multiple tools from multiple domains that can accomplish the same missions with redundancy.

 

so what do you think becomes of this russian destruction of NATO country assets. civil court and seizure of assets or comparable attacks or ??

 

I don't know. We are kind of on new ground here. My instinct is this was an asymmetrical attack, and the retaliation should come in an asymmetrical form. Merchant vessels, for instance, are in a hazardous line of work, and bad things can happen at sea. If a few ended up springing some embarrassing leaks on the high seas and had to be abandoned to the mercy of Davy Jones' locker (their crews safely rescued by NATO-member nations, of course), then I would not object.

 

Americans don't need to be there. Our weapons and ammunition need to be there. That's all it took for Afghanistan to defeat Russia, and that's all it would take for Ukraine to defeat Russia. And sending weapons and ammo is a hell of a lot cheaper than sending soldiers (plus weapons and ammo). And it is much, MUCH cheaper (and much less dangerous) than waiting until Russia has invaded enough territory (or the wrong territory) to justify a full-scale American military response. U.S. troops on the ground fighting Russia INCREASES the chances of a nuclear war. Incremental bumps in military technology and weapons supply do not seem to have increased the risk of nuclear war.

 

Maybe you could organize protests in the trenches, holding surrender signs and singing songs with the troops. Get your ass over there. Tell us how it goes.

 

I wonder if the Russians consider this a proportionate response for Nordstream..

 

They might, but who did Nordstream? Was it the Finns and Germans in collusion? If not, I don't see the argument for a proportionate response if I'm German or Finn. I do see a strong German-Finnish argument for a counter-proportionate response, though.

 

Do you really think the Ukrainian government is in charge? We fund them and make all the calls. We fund their government. It's a proxy war. We have fired a shot. The administration has given the okay to fire our missiles at Russia. Either the US or another NATO country has to guide those missiles. The Ukrainians do not have the capacity to do this. The scary part is Putin released a multi-warhead intermediate-range hypersonic missile not used before. It can travel 3,500 miles. That puts all of Europe on notice, and they don't have an Iron Dome for hypersonic. We now have N. Korean troops in Russia. We have China cutting cables. This has ramifications for all Indo-Pacific nations. The British are setting up in Moldova. Using our missiles is not only a giant mistake, it's maybe the most reckless thing I have witnessed our gov't do. This could get out of hand quickly. Poland was just put on notice as they are storing weapons. I don't think people realize how quickly things have gone downhill.

 

I get it. Many of us have been saying this could easily get out of hand ever since Russia was lining up to invade. That doesn’t mean we felt that the west should just lie down and let Russia do whatever - because that could also escalate quickly.

 

What can I say? I'm sold. I haven't been this scared since the 13th time Russia threatened to use nukes. I'll call my Commanding General right now and ask if I should start drafting our articles of surrender. I'm quite the wordsmith, you know. There won't be a dry seat in the house when you read what I type up.

 

no, it was Ukrainians, fairly well determined I believe, but maybe Putin has other intel about the financing and equipping or ??? Maybe a german financier that didn't want Germany buying more russian gas?? the secrets and happenings associated with russia over the last 5 years would make a real interesting book if someone actually knew the truth.