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Cheap Oil?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Oct 2, 2024.

  1. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    I was joking. It's because Biden was in power when it happened, and therefore gets to take credit for it. Just like Trump will probably take credit for the sun coming up in the morning. It's part of the Idiocracy.
     
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  2. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    papa djt bringing the cheap gas..u just wait, i told you he would

    contango will cause traders to close positions if the cost to roll them forward costs too much or lasts too long. as they sell into a saturated market it should drive prices down further as US production continues to ramp up and chinese demand continues to weaken

    Oil Oversupply Fears Grow as U.S. Production Hits New Highs

    Key oil market indicators in the United States suggest an oversupply, signaling an impending global surplus. On Monday, the prompt spread for oil futures traded in negative territory for the first time since February. This reflects a bearish market structure known as Contango, indicating an ample short-term supply. The spread closed at a one-cent discount after reaching a low of five cents per barrel.

    As the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential supply glut exceeding one million barrels per day, traders are closely monitoring the market balance heading into 2025. The IEA also notes that inventories could expand even further if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies increase production next year.

    While crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, remain aligned with recent seasonal norms, U.S. crude oil production continues to rise, exceeding 13 million barrels per day. At the same time, oil consumption in China, the world’s largest crude consumer, has declined for six consecutive months through September, adding to concerns about demand.
     
  3. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Oil Glut Set to Thwart Trump’s Call to ‘Frack, Frack, Frack’

    President-elect Donald Trump’s vows to “frack, frack, frack” are about to collide with a global crude glut that’s set to, finally, temper record shale production. Trump has said he’ll push America’s shale companies to ramp up output – telling supporters pump prices would fall even if it meant producers “drill themselves out of business” — but his second term follows two straight years of record US output. Against that backdrop, analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg see the US adding just 251,000 barrels a day from the end of this year through 2025, the slowest pace since the pandemic-driven drop in 2020.
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    So far, the independent oil producers responsible for most of the shale boom over the past decade have no plans to radically alter their drilling after the election. Diamondback Energy Inc. and Devon Energy Corp. indicated growth of 2% or less in 2025, while EOG Resources Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. expect to keep activity flat. Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub has warned of “declining growth rates” in the US over the medium term.

    There is cause for skepticism, of course. Last year, the shale patch surprised the market by adding 1 million barrels a day of output, despite independent producers vowing limited growth. And heavyweight producers including Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are expanding rapidly, posting increases of more than 8% in the past year.

    Macquarie Group Ltd., which correctly predicted last year’s stunning growth, sees output reaching an unprecedented 13.9 million barrels a day by the end of this year, 5% above current Department of Energy estimates.
     
  4. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    It's so typically MAGA in that "Drill, Drill, Drill" is such a dated narrative. Again, so MAGA that they would bay at the moon about this when the US is literally producing more oil and energy on the whole than at anytime in our history. This is exactly why I detest them with the white-hot intensity of 1000 suns.
     
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  5. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Somewhat ironic the Trump's policy could have the opposite of it's supposedly intended effect. When the price of oil falls below the breakeven point as the result of supply increasing at a greater rate than demand producers will stop drilling thereby reducing supply ironically resulting in higher prices further down the road.
     
  6. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Supply and demand, it works very well. If the US then can produce oil and natural gas cheaper than other oil producing countries we will start exporting more of it.
     
  7. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    We can probably produce gas cheaper than most other countries. Not really sure about oil. Saudi Arabia can produce it for a fraction of the cost of fracking in the US. I was actually surprised. I thought the cost of producing shale oil in the US was in the $30 to $40 range.
    upload_2024-11-19_20-40-42.png
     
  8. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Interesting info, thanks for posting it. We could put a hurt on some countries if our oil production grows.
     
  9. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Consolidation means frackers don't have to worry about funding debt so they can hold inventory in the ground until prices recover. No more rush to produce to pay the debt
     
  10. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    We can produce it cheap but the cost to liquify and transport and gassify makes it more than gas piped to Europe. Oz is also producing massive volumes at cheap rates
     
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