War in Ukraine

Too late for this policy change. This should have been done in July.

 

Putin knows he just needs to wait for Trump to yank aid for Ukraine.

 

Seems like a rather pointless gesture at this stage, if for nothing more than to widen the war before the new CIC takes over.

 

Putin doesn’t know that. Putin hopes that. Not even Trump knows what he’s going to do yet.

 

That could be. It could also be that whatever Ukraine intends to hit with those weapons has an effect none of us can foresee yet.

 

Trump is on record saying as much. Who are we kidding?

 

Look, you may end up being right, and I’ll unhappily admit it if you are. But there are lots of reasons why that might not be the case. First, it’s easy to say something when you’re campaigning and you don’t (yet) have to assess the consequences of your actions. Second, it’s easy to want something to fail when the other guy is in charge of it; when suddenly it could become your failure, the color changes. Third, there’s the matter of our allies, whom Trump needs for his stated strategic main effort of containing China; outraging them by pulling aid while they, despite being poorer, are redoubling their efforts would undermine his larger strategy. Fourth, he will soon have access to the classified material that shows what’s really going on in Russia; that will lead his advisors to conclude that Russia is the more vulnerable party, would be more responsive to pressure, and to get the quick end to the war he seeks it might be more expedient to leverage against Russia instead of Ukraine. Fifth, many of those munitions going to Ukraine are being manufactured in the swing states who voted for him and will probably determine who controls Congress in 2027.

All of those are realist concerns, not idealist ones that won’t persuade someone like Trump.

Remember our shared interest is in defeating Russia so that conquest is not re-normalized and we don’t find ourselves in a much larger generational conflict within the next 10 years. The objective is not to hope Trump fails even if it means Ukraine falls just to have political ammo against him.

 

I don’t happen to share your optimism that Trump won't eff Ukraine over.
Trump doesn't give a rats ass about anything those around him might say to dissuade him.

 

I would have no problem with Trump ending the aid. It is well passed the time for the US to STOP being the World's policeman, and it is also well passed the time that the US to stop funding other Countries wars.

 

Sorry Neville, we've tried that path before as recently as Crimea. That approach just doesn't work with wannabe world Dictators.

 

So you would prefer to live in a world where strong countries just do whatever they want to their weaker neighbors, and none of us lift a finger to assist the weak. I wonder how that would play out for world commerce over the long run.

 

Optimism, in the sense you mean, has nothing to do with it. I do not believe for one second that Trump will come to the conclusion that helping Ukraine is morally right and change course. But we both agree that Trump is a transactional human being. I pointed out several reasons above why Trump might discover upon reflection that helping Ukraine is more in his interest than letting it fall. Specifically, which of those reasons do you challenge?

 

and funding may be the most corrupt country on the planet. 1,000 people a day are dying in this war that should have never taken place. Ukraine will never be a part of NATO. This is how the war ends. You give Russia confidence NATO nuclear warheads will never be on their border.

 

Is your plan now to also hand over Finland since they have a Russian border, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia. There that should be enough. Perhaps rethink that plan?

 

I think Trump is going to want Putin to give a significant concession in Ukraine to do a peace deal. That will allow Trump to achieve a campaign promise and allow himself and Ukrainians to save face. If Putin is not willing to give in on that, I would expect the Trump Admin to approve a new set of long range fires system that can reach deeper into Russia.

 

Would you be OK with us continuing to sell long range munitions to Ukraine?

 

not the billions of dollars joey has been sending- I expect Trump to be able to end the war sooner rather than later