Wow… feels a lot like retribution. I know a lot of people lost money. The media is acting like Polymarket overinflated Trump’s chances of victory. If I’m not mistaken Polymarket was at somewhere around 30% odds of Trump winning the popular vote going into Election Day. So, they were actually understating his chances.
So if I am a Trump supporter but rob a bank the authorities can't arrest me otherwise its lawfare? What is this thread even about?
Yeah that's how it works. If you get charged or arrested for anything and you're a Trump supporter, it's lawfare.
Alternative title: Trumpers try very hard to determine the complex link between committing crimes openly and being investigated for committing crimes by law enforcement but unable to grasp such a difficult causal linkage.
It probably was classic lib brain in the sense that they probably waited until after the election to raid them because they didn't want a right-wing media story about "election interference" unless part of their 3d chess plan was to get Trump elected then show them who's boss.
He bears quite a physical resemblance to Sam Bankman-Freid. My guess is that his business ethics are probably similar to those of Bankman-Fried. Banlman-Fried Coplan Interestingly both the betting market and the exchange rely on crypto. Off-topic but I agree with Warren Buffett regarding cryptocurrencies. Warren Buffett Predicts ‘Bad Ending’ for Bitcoin — Is It a Doomed Investment?
Democrat lowlifes couldn't stand a prediction market proving their fraudulent polls and MSM narratives were nonsense so they went after Polymarket. The enemies of democracy pretending they are trying to save it again.
Super interesting story that just keeps going. Wash trading seems to be the claim. Here’s an article on it from a couple weeks ago: Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say I’ve obviously been one of Polymarket’s biggest defenders on here, but if there is evidence of illegal trading, I don’t think it matters whether the odds were later proved “right” (as if there is such a thing.) And the idea that this is retribution for the election outcome is far fetched. Seems like no way the FBI could pull off a raid this fast.
Yeah, polymarkets claims so far that it’s political payback for predicting correctly is really dumb… it’s like fans blaming Corso for a loss because he picked the other team…
Maybe.. more likely wackjobs with nothing else to do. Stupid rumor mongering to discredit someone or something.
I'm willing to accept it wasn't retribution, but help me understand here. Because every headline leads with "betting site that gave Trump high odds of winning...." Well, we know just about every betting house was in-line with Polymarket. We know Poly was about 30% chance on Trump winning the popular vote. From a betting odds standpoint, Poly was understating Trump's prospects. If Nate Silver's model was factoring in a 2% national cushion for Trump, I believe Trump would have won Silver's model >75% of the time. So what are they trying to say? Wash trading inflated Trump's odds? Even though it's clear the site never fully appreciated Trump's odds? And in fact in the days leading up to the election they had Trump's odds as low as 54%. It appears the wash trading they're referring to happens often in the crypto world. So why pick on Poly? And how were odds skewed if it undervalued Trump's prospects? The whole thing seems fishy. Poly was the favorite punching bag of the left leading up to the Election.
It is difficult to understand Okee, and I don’t know that I understand it well myself. Here’s my best shot so far: wash trading is more about volume than price. As the name implies, you can’t actually earn profit by buying and selling the same asset over and over. So, why would polymarket do this? The first thought I have is that this volume allows Polymarket to show it is an extremely active market, which makes it appear more reliable and also may allow Polymarket to report that they are the “biggest” or “most popular” prediction market. (I forget how they marketed themselves, but it was by some such moniker.) Both of these factors might recruit investors away from polymarket’s competitors. So that Polymarket gave Trump relatively high odds may be entirely besides the point. However, wash trading might end up inflating the price of an asset by getting investors to notice that asset. If orange juice had 3x as many trades as any other asset today, investors might just buy it just in case something real is going on. My guess is that the wash trading did not have a large impact on the price of Trump’s shares. Theo himself probably made a bigger impact, and I don’t think he was wash trading since he was entirely exposed with his bets (that we know of). Hopefully we will all be able to understand better as more details of the case are released.
What makes me chuckle about this story is that the Kalshi founder straight up threw shade on Polymarket a few weeks ago calling out wash trades and how Kalshi is regulated and it’s not allowed. Speculation on my part, but he wouldn’t have made that so clear if he also wasn’t approached by the Regulators and Kalshi had the receipts of its compliance.
Yeah, I think we need more details. It seems the entire lead-in premise is that Poly somehow inflated Trump's odds which doesn't reconcile with reality. Trump actually outperformed Poly's odds. Poly had Harris winning a couple of the battleground states going into Election Day. More than likely, this is a case of retribution and some vague wrong-doing. A situation where law enforcement was given a mission to hook someone on a charge for their political affiliations. If they want to find something on you, they will. They were likely planning this raid for some time and held off for the election so that it wouldn't be easily flagged as politically motivated. Which tells you right away it probably was, lol.
