Ezra Klein eviscerates lib talking points

That is an interesting topic worthy of discussion. Much more than the OP's flawed and confrontational take.

On one hand, what people consider crime (misbehavior) may not show up in crime stats. Perhaps for good reason. Many of those behaviors are not actionable by law enforcement (crimes!) and therefore tracking the actions and events are not needed. On the other hand, what do the trump voters want the government to do about this "civil disorder"? More jackboots on the ground?

 

Of course appeals to authority fallacy threads are weak. Particularly ones that exhibit partisan frustration, unearned sense of vindication, provocation and mockery. How is it not weak?

I'd love to know what some of my "talking points" are and how they are religious like. Please indulge me.

 

Here's a story on incumbent governments, regardless if they are left or right leaning, losing elections around the globe. 70% of incumbent governments in countries with modern economies have already lost power. That's highly unusual, as incumbents generally have an advantage. But this time around? Opponents are placing the post-COVID inflation at the feet of the sitting people in power, and the economy is the number one issue for people around the globe.

Out of all these incumbent losses, the Democrats actually did a decent job in comparison, losing by a smaller margin than most. But a L is still an L.

 

Since you mentioned Covid, quick thought here about a theory I have, but I admittedly don't have any data to support it. Inflation was a big issue to voters - perhaps the biggest issue. I also think there was/is a bit of a broader Covid hangover that isn't specific to a specific list of policies that apply going forward post-Covid.

I've long thought that Trump's handling of Covid (more so his statements and conduct than the actual policies of his administration) was the reason why Trump lost in 2020. We know the 2022 electorate is smaller, more engaged, and different, but at least by 2024, I think it's possible that some voters blamed Democrats for having gone too far with things like school closures, releasing certain inmates from jail, etc. Think about when guys like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan began to get sideways the Democrats. It was largely Covid related. Musk was mocked online for downplaying it. Rogan was angry about CNN misrepresenting his choice to take a human form of Ivermectin. Just a thought.

 

My point is that Canada and the U.S. had a distinct trend of inflation and Europe had their own distinct trend. Europe got hit just as hard as the U.S. And Canada's inflation trend was quite similar to ours. In other words, I think you're overstating the impact domestic policy had. I don't think the War in Ukraine is as significant as you're making it out to be to what happened in Europe. They simply got hit later. (In fact, inflation was already on the ascent in Europe when the war in Ukraine began.)

Agreed. They did blame the Democrats for inflation. And that's the biggest reason they lost.

IMO, this speaks more to perception than policy or messaging. Additionally, we've been in a conservative political regime since the 1980s. Nobody can forecast what our politics will look like in 2028, particularly with the chaos and cruelty the Trump administration is likely to impose.

I'll also say that it's interesting that sort of messaging resonated with your wife. Because Allred ran as a moderate. Cruz is not a moderate. In fact, Allred ran his own ad saying he doesn't want boys playing girls' sports. It clearly didn't break through.

 

As to inflation - we cannot definitively assign causation from correlation. But the early inflation pattern in US and Canada is entirely consistent with the greater level of early fiscal deficit stimulus - in both countries. The delayed higher inflation in Europe is entirely consistent with the impact of the Ukraine war. You seem to forget how dependent they were on Russian gas, and ultimately had to switch to expensive US LNG and other sources.

I really can’t spell it out more clearly than that.

As to Alred/Cruz - of course Cruz isn’t a moderate. Who said he was? The point is that the men in women’s sports issue is so irritating to her that all it took was a stupid distortive TV ad to move the needle.

Yes it is annoying she is activated by such issues, but as someone who in earlier years participated in sports the fact of some dude declaring he is female and participating in women’s sports is something that drives her bonkers. It does me too, but apart from debating it on forums like this it’s not an issue that I’m looking for politicians to become involved with.

 

And yet, inflation was already beginning to spike in Europe before the war in Ukraine began.

Understood. My point is that Allred is a former pro athlete, a moderate Democrat, and didn't run on men in women's sports (in fact, he took the opposite position). I'm not taking a shot at your wife. I'm simply saying that this election had much less to do with actual policy and messaging and much more to do with people being angry at Democrats. What does that mean for the future? I don't know. We'll be in a different environment in 2028. Nobody can say with any certainty what that'll be.

 

But not as much as the US. That’s the point. Yes, obviously Covid supply issues were the primary driver of inflation worldwide. But larger fiscal US/Canada fiscal stimulus likely caused US inflation to be higher than Europe. Europe only became as high and even higher than US until well into the Ukraine war.

I voted for Allred. I had listened to some interviews. My wife had never heard him and voted almost solely based on attack ads. In an odd way she felt like she was balancing her vote for Harris.

I suspect 2028 will be a different landscape - with no more Trump, and people will be utterly sick of him. His nominations show that things will likely be an utter shit show, and such a high level of incompetence has to have fallout somewhere.

 

I do recall an analysis that our stimulation-based approach to covid's economic impact made inflation higher than our peers at the onset. That being said, the response by the administration and the Fed has been more than satisfactory.

 

Expanding money supply had a FAR greater impact on the price of everything than Covid-related supply chain interruptions.

go look at the M2 numbers

 

It is likely at least part of the reason why the US came out and continues to be stronger. It tweaked inflation up a bit but also lead to economic growth. People perceive the inflation but take the economic growth for granted.

 

M2 numbers have always been all over the place. The fiscal stimulus certainly played a part but the supply chain issues were the primary source - as can be seen world wide.

 

The economy is what voters experience, not what we read in the WSJ.

Petty crimes are a problem in the suburbs, with apps like next door they are front and center.

You have to meet your voters where they are at, and the dems if nothing else, are condesending assholes.

The GOP are assholes too, so dont get me wrong.

 

I try very hard to not be condescending to people who are wiling to vote for a guy who;
- criminally tried to overturn an election
- lied that immigrants are "Eating the dogs and cats."
- lied that FEMA is giving all the money to illegal immigrants
- stood and watched while hundreds of police were beaten during a riot for him
- was adjudicated to be a sexual assaulter, and admitted to be one himself


People for whom those things are not dealbreakers shouldn't be judged! They just need to be understood more! Please understand them better, such as that......they don't understand about inflation, and will thus tolerate Trump's lies.

Do I have it right?

 

You are describing personal economic perspective.

The economy is the production, distribution, and consumption of goods/services and is measured with broad statistics, not feelings.

 

Your reasoning seems to hinge on the writer’s 'leftie' affiliation rather than the validity of his argument. When a 'coastal elite' holds an opinion you disagree with, you dismiss it as biased. But when they express an opinion you agree with, you treat their perceived bias as proof of its accuracy. You appear to prioritizes alignment over evidence. This undermines any point you're trying to make. Truly stupendous motivated reasoning, amirite?

 

I am an asshole. Because I am tired of being told to pander to people's feelings when those feelings are wrong. As I said in my post, the gripe about prices is a legitimate one. Most of the other gripes, particularly about crime, are bull. People's perceptions of crime almost never match the realities of it.