The election betting thread

Quick update on Florida. As of now, we're at 71.4% of the total 2020 vote count in the state. Still tracking for a possible 20-point landslide win for Trump. It will depend on how NPA's vote, but one would have to assume Trump wins NPA's by 8 or 9 points. We know voting on election day is typically 2-to-1 GOP in the purple states. Trump has decent odds of a 20+ win here and if he does that, it's very difficult to see Harris outperforming him elsewhere. If we only had PA's early vote totals. We only have their mail in totals.

Side note: clear that Trump will deliver a crushing win in Miami-Dade.

 

Betting odds moving towards Donald.

 

They’re just betting odds, but they are more than double what they were this time 4 years ago. Every Trump bettor who remembers this is still extremely cautious.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Glad you were wrong bro.

 

Let’s see…
Not there yet.
I’m genuinely surprised he’s in a position to crush the camel.

 

Off the board, looks over.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

4 years ago he was at 92% in the betting markets at one point before losing.

 

Trump’s up to a 92% chance to win on the new legal app for election betting with $23 million of net, new money on his side in the last hour. Not sure how to link to Kalshi.

 

it’s higher than that this time, it’s going to hurt folks worse if that happens this time around.

Any sites still offering odds?

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

There were no betting odds four years ago that are remotely comparable. You couldn’t legally make a market for that then. Who knows how reliable this is, but massive amounts of money from a liquid market usually is not wrong. I hope it is.

 

Not sure what you mean. It was legal to bet on it then and it is legal to bet on it now.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Except it was not legal. You could bet at offshore books, but you couldn’t make a legal market in the US

Election betting is newly legal — and risks getting confused with polls

 

That's a problem for US hosts, not a problem for US bettors. Still, it's worth asking how much of the money comes from international gamblers. Regardless, the betting took place and the odds were recognized.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Drastically different. $1bn was bet on the entire 2020 election. $323 million was bet in the last five days on one app for 2024. Over $20mm in the last hour.

Think of it like illegal offshore gambling for sports betting versus the stock market. The donor class, hedge fund managers, all my colleagues in PE, etc., etc. can place a trade that is backed by CFTC.

It’s not remotely similar and you can read all about why in the future.

 

Honestly not sure what you are getting at here. Is the handle this year 5x more, 10x more, 20x more? Something else? Does that increase impact the accuracy of the wagers? We can take college football games (for example), some games get 100x more action on it than others, but that doesn't mean the line for that game is more accurate.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Odds back on the board; was just at -1351 for Republican win. Now seeing it at -1000.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Khalsi isn’t a “bet” it is a prediction on the likely outcome of a future event. You buy a future’s contract that is regulated the same way you would buy one if you “bet” on the future price of soybeans or bought a put/call for a public equity.

The betting market still exists from this message board to offshore markets regardless of legal status.

Again, there has never been a “market maker” for national elections that is legal that real money with expert knowledge plus massive amounts of stupid public money can pour into at the last minute.

Offshore bets could be any multiple of what they were last election cycle (and I am sure they are), but comparing just offshore bets with real predictions backed this time is apples to oranges.

Trump won this election though, and I trust the newly formed futures exchange with that prediction.

 

I have seen this claimed a few times. Do you have source? Because I can’t find evidence of Trump’s odds going up like that.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Joe Biden: how betting markets foresaw the result of the 2020 US election

 

After he won Florida in 2020 I remember his odds jumping to like -900 for a little bit because that's when I went to bed.