That's not gonna get 'er done. GOP are up roughly 5,000~ statewide in voting today. Vote cannibalism? Not so much. From Ralston's blog, you can clearly see the issue for Harris: R's turning out at a 9% higher clip than D's in Clark County; 8% higher statewide. That's nearly impossible to overcome, even if Dems in Clark County reduce that margin today. As you can see, they can only reduce it by so much because GOP continue to turn out today.
It could be. Selzer noted that a shift to Harris among women over 65 compared with her previous surveys. Although she didn't mention party affiliation my guess is that Iowa being Iowa a significant percentage of those women were probably affiliated with the Republican Party. I would also add that although there has been a gender gap going back to 1980 this year the gap expanded to a gender Grand Canyon. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that this election could be the first time since before 1980 that the Democratic candidate receives a majority of the votes of white women. Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris enthusiasm among independent women rattles Donald Trump
Trump's stock went into a freefall around 3:00 and trading was halted... someone saw something they didn't like ...
Obviously anecdotal I was watching a network reporter covering a polling location in Philadelphia in which the waiting time to vote was well over an hour and voting normally doesn't peak until later in the afternoon and early evening (the polls close at 8:00 pm in PA). Seems indicative of very high turnout.
Where's the Democrat turnaround in Maricopa? I mean sure, the gains are slowing a bit for the GOP, but they are still gaining at almost 2:1 on top of huge gains earlier today and in EV. There's only 6 hours left. Kari Lake must be very hopeful right now.
But Reps had a 196k lead going in unlike 2020. Dems are not countering the EV change from 2020 to 2024.
It looks like everywhere that matters, GOP are trouncing Dem turnout. I was curious to see what the vote cannibalization would look like. GOP are turning out so high, the cannibalization is negligible. Hard to believe GOP are turning out so good in FL, AZ and NV and won't do the same in the blue wall states. These are large gaps in turnout %. It looks like a devastating night unfolding for Kamala Harris. Trump will win Arizona by >5 points. Lake is possibly going to win as well. If that trend holds, GOP could be looking at a 55-45 majority in the Senate. House has 4 toss-ups in AZ and NV.
