Trump is over performing the R senate candidates all across the country. Doesn’t make sense to me either, but it’s real.
Selzer came very close to predicting Trump's margin of victory in Iowa in 2020 when most of the other pollsters were way off. This is from 2020, note Selzer's poll (the Des Moines Register poll) compared with the other pollsters. Was it bought and paid for by "fake news" four years ago?
It's all part of the plan. Last time, the Dems stole the election with mail-in voting fraud, but they were smart and knew people would be watching, so they switched up this year to election day fraud. They are always one step ahead.
Georgia turn out as of this morning: 48.6% of all registered voters. Look at all that red at the top (counties Trump won in 2020) and look at all the blue at the bottom (Biden 2020 counties). Tell me Dems don't have a turnout problem:
FYI, Emerson did a poll of Iowa during the same period, with the same sample size, and came to a Trump +10. One of these is likely an outlier. 2024 Iowa: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
Selzer was also the outlier in 2020 and it turned out that she was the most accurate pollster. She predicted that Trump would win by a 7% margin (he ended up carrying the state by 8.2%). Emerson forecast a one percent margin of victory by Trump with most other pollsters having him ahead by one or two percent and one (a Democrat poll) actually had Biden winning by a one percent margin.
I look at population and the top red GA county on that list has 34k registered voters… the top blue county has 600k…
Fulton is at 49.3% which isn't good either, because all those Biden counties under them are dragging the state average turnout down. There are far more counties in GA below 48.6% than above it and a lot of them are Biden counties. The top 30 counties on that list are 100% red.
Fulton is in the graph. All counties in GA are. The graph is so scrunched, you have to scroll over the county to get the name to pop. Here's the screen: You can play with it yourself, cowboy: Early Voting Tracker
Clayton County, GA... pretty huge for Biden: Clayton County, GA today: Are we done or do you want more?
That's not why Clinton lost. Clinton lost because minorities didnt turn out. An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters | Pew Research Center Black voter turnout fell in 2016 US election
Little known trivia—Georgia has more counties (159) than any other state in the country. Most GA counties are dark red, but the 6-8 largest counties in the state are all deep blue. Another fact. GA population has grown by about 400,000 people since 2020, mostly young people and retirees, so in a state decided by less than 12,000 votes last time around I don’t know that any polling within the MOE at this point is very accurate and is likely a complete toss up at this point.
The lack of turnout from the Bernie Bros hurt her badly, as did her failure to campaign at all in the Rust Belt as she assumed she didn’t need to.
Uh oh. MORE important than any poll is the rally size. Uh oh… looking like a Harris avalanche unless the vote is stolen!
