The first votes have been cast in the election

Women have a 10+ point lead over men in early voting. How many moderate Repub women cross over to vote for Harris? Also, independents have more early votes in NC than either Repubs or Dems, so I think it depends on where the indys fall.

 

Indies are voting in large numbers in Arizona too. If Harris has a double digit lead among the indies, it all but wipes out any R advantage in the state. And if the Rs crossover in Arizona the same rate as 2020 (9%), then Harris currently has a similar firewall than Biden had four years ago. Reasons why just looking at party registration of voters R vs D may not paint an accurate picture. Especially when you consider moderate, suburban R women in places like Iowa are likely the reason the recent poll there favors Harris. Lots of Midwestern, moderate Rs retire to Arizona.

 

Assuming Harris holds on to 90% of D's, she would need Trump to hold on to 88% of R's, and win Indies 61% to 39% to overcome the early voting lead R's currently have.

 

Jon Ralston predicts that Harris will win NV 48.5 to 48.2, mainly on betting on the Reid machine to get the votes out on election day.

Editor Jon Ralston’s 2024 Nevada election predictions - The Nevada Independent

If accurate, Harris could lose PA and still get to 272 with NV, NC, WI, & MI or NV, GA, WI, & MI.

 

These numbers are not out of the realm of reality. Especially when you consider gender and age.

 

Still think that no one really knows what is going on.

 

Van Jones knows PA is lost. He has solid contacts in the Democratic party and he is laying the groundwork for the inevitable.