The blackouts aren't new but were just exacerbated by Hurricane Oscar. Unsurprisingly, the Cuban government and media appear to be largely blaming the United States, citing sanctions/restrictions. Others point to a longer list of causes to include government mismanagement/corruption within Cuba as well as decreasing oil/gas shipments coming into Cuba from Venezuela. To the extent Venezuela and Russia are unable or unwilling to help, I don't know whether there might be an opportunity for the United States, other countries, and/or the private sector to help the people. As with any authoritarian regime, there is a concern that any help offered would inure to the benefit of the regime rather than the people. And that's before we even get into how politically charged the subject of Cuba has been in the United States over the years. Notably, though, to the extent the problems in Cuba are going to increase the number of migrants coming into the United States, it seems like it has to be viewed as an immigration issue as well as a humanitarian one. Thoughts? Cubans struggle with an extended power outage and a new tropical storm Some banged pots and pans in the streets, while others demonstated from their balconies. Protesters who said they have no water blocked at least one street with garbage. The Cuban government has a low tolerance for civil disobedience and President Miguel Díaz-Canel warned on national television Sunday that “we’re not going to allow any vandalism, or let anyone disturb people’s tranquility.” The prolonged nationwide blackout followed a massive outage Thursday night, part of energy problems that led to the largest protests in Cuba in almost 30 years, in July 2021. Those were followed by smaller local protests in October 2022 and March 2024. It’s all part of a deep economic crisis that has prompted the exodus of more than half a million Cubans to the U.S., with thousands more heading to Europe. That has led to a reduction in the availability of rationed food for those who do not leave.
You certainly cant ignore sanctions. When you cant access the world economy, you can have the best people in the world working to keep your infrastructure up but its always going to need repairs, upgrades, modernization and such. And when you cant get the capital and equipment to do it ... well bubblegum and duct tape only go so far. What is the point of sanctions? The the government is not in danger (and if it did collapse, it would create another crisis and wave of immigration), and its just going to create more immigration. If you don't like Venezuelans and Cubans crossing the border (or any of the 1/3rd of the globe that has fallen under some sort of US sanction), why not lift sanctions so they can make their country a place that is livable? As long as the sanctions are there, the government will always have a scapegoat if it cant deliver the goods.
Obama tried normalizing relations with Cuba and that is part of the reason FL swung republican. I don’t see any rational policy coming any time soon.
That's certainly the conventional wisdom. I would note that Florida changed from Democratic to Republican control during the Clinton years (before the contentious fight over Elian Gonzalez at the end of Clinton's second term). That was part of a national trend at the time but I think also due to new people coming into Florida, which has continued. To me, the fact that Obama was later able to squeak out two close victories in his presidential elections in Florida was a testament to how good of a politician he is personally. But I don't think Florida is where Pennsylvania seems to be now - where a single issue in a single state might mean the difference in tipping the entire election.
can you ignore all the private property that the cuban gubmnt seized from people or the other reasons why the sanctions exist?
i have fingers crossed that between amendments 3 and 4 that maybe Harris could steal Florida. Wish they would put more effort into it
If Florida isn't a swing state, seems like an opening for Dems or Republicans if they want it. Presumably even right-wing Cubans have family they may want to visit or be able to send money to.
I'd argue we changed from D to R with Martinez. You had the Chiles years, but that was just the executive. The State government has been dominated by R's since Reagan. BTW, Zeihan had a good video on this this morning, but on the Patreon site. He thinks the hurricane might create an opportunity for something positive - since there really is no outside support for Cuba - between Cuba and the US. Nothing concrete, but there might be a chance for something.
Maybe we are splitting hairs on the timeline, but I am pretty sure Republicans took control of the state legislature in 1996, which was almost a decade after Regan left office. The reason I said I thought 1996 was somewhat part of a national trend is that it was two years after Newt and the GOP took over Congress in the 1994 midterms as part of the "Republican Revolution." Of course, Jeb! later beat MacKay in 1998.
Damn, now I have to check this out. Maybe you're right. I was a kid in the 80s. It just feels like Rs have been dominating for a long time and that Chiles was just trying to check them when he was governor.
Apparently they hate Castro regime and successors so badly that they would rather the island be pummeled with sanctions than trying to open up and encourage positive engagement. Whether Cuba could be successfully engaged without compromising national security is an open question. It doesn’t always work out as planned (China, Iran).
Yeah, but I like our chances given the proximity and cultural similarities. Yeah, I said that. I don't really consider Latin culture that different from ours. Like Spanish culture vs. Northern French culture. The "differences" are pretty meh. The Miami Cuban thing is head scratching. We're still in "pound of flesh" mode 7 decades later? Are these people that unevolved mentally?
Maybe, but if Donald Trump did it they would probably just be like "maybe he's right" and change their mind. I really think that's all it would take. Would they care if Marco Rubio got mad about it?
