War in Ukraine

Bravado about Russian military incompetence followed closely by the admission that the only thing that has kept Europe’s second-largest army off life support (barely so) is hundreds of billions of weapons and aid from the U.S. and roughly 50 countries.

 

WOW! Poroshenko just said that if an election was held today, Putin would win over Zelensky in Ukraine. The natives are getting restless.

 

My point was precisely that Trump isn’t going to win, but even if he does, no, he won’t. Once his national security team has access to the classified data, they won’t allow Trump to pull the rug out from under Ukraine. He can’t afford a key resignation during the first 100 days of his term.

 

I hope you are right but Trump will do his best to put his flunkies in. There won’t be any Mattis, Tillerson, McMaster or Kelley types. The only saving grace may be they are so inept they are incapable of doing what Trump wants.

 

I’ve met Bridge Colby. He’s no flunky. He’s a Republican and a realist in the international relations sense of the word. Like anyone else, his parts are mixed: I agree with some of his positions and not others. But he’s an American above all else, and I think he would do his best to make Trump do what is good for the country, whether Trump wanted to or not.

But I must again emphasize that I don’t think we’re going to find out.

 

The news we have all been waiting for. Apologies if already posted upthread:

Ukraine Claims First Air Victory with F-16 Over Russian Bomber (msn.com)

 

Just to illustrate how tenuous the situation in Ukraine is: Poroshenko was Biden's guy replacing Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Since losing the election in 2019 to Zelenskyy, Ukraine have charged Poroshenko with treason and won't allow him to leave the country. Corruption is the name of the game in that country, which is why treating Zelenskyy as some sort of benevolent folk hero defending democracy for the entire world is pure, unbridled propaganda.

 

First of many.

 

I don’t know what you’re talking about. He’s the greatest ever:

 

You mean we’re not fighting a proxy war to preserve democracy ?

 

Got to push them back and negate the glide bomb strategic advantage Russia has held. Guessing Ukraine has 20 - 25 f 16's operational

 

Well, it was hardly a strategic advantage. I would say it was tactical at best. Russia's strategic advantages would be its manpower, resources, relationship with China, etc. Stuff like that.

 

maybe Russia is the target if they are known to have been overproducin 125k bopd, then they were probably doing much more

Saudi Arabia’s imminent crude oil supply hike could mean tough times for the Russian economy (msn.com)

The kingdom reportedly gave hints of flooding the global market with oil supply from December, which could potentially dip oil prices to as low as $50 a barrel. According to sources, the low prices would affect OPEC members, who have not aligned with Saudi Arabia’s request to cut down oil flows.

The collapse in global oil prices could pose a significant huddle to Russia’s economy. The kingdom plans to increase its monthly production by an additional 83,000 b/d. The supply increase will boost its output by 1 mn b/d by late 2025.

August’s data report from S&P Global Ratings revealed that Russia has been overproducing oil from Moscow at 122,000 barrels above its daily quota in July. Moscow may be responding to mounting pressure to profit from oil. Russia’s three-year war with Ukraine could have played a role in Russia’s overproduction since the war increased government spending.

Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on oil. The country’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview broadcast that Russia is attempting to reduce its dependence on its oil and gas reserves to about 23% by 2027. Gas and oil production made up to 40% of the nation’s budget revenue a few years ago.

 

Here are the Freedom House rankings for Ukraine from 2019-2024. As you can see, it's never been democratic, but has only gotten worse from 2019 to 2024. (the lower the score, the lower the freedom) Zelenskyy replaced Poroshenko in 2019, for reference:



footnote: The numerical scores and status listed here do not reflect conditions in the previously occupied Ukrainian territories of Crimea and Eastern Donbas, which are examined in separate reports.

 

Curious what you are seeing that leads you to feel so confident in this, now three weeks out from Election Day? He is polling 8 points better today across the board than he was on this date in 2020 and he nearly won that election. I'd say at the very least, he has a very good shot of winning and of course I believe he will unless something drastic occurs between now and Nov 5th. To say "he isn't going to win" sounds pretty confident. What are you seeing that makes you feel so confident?

 

How do you know that Poroshenko was NOT guilty of treason? Politics is an ugly game, and if Poroshenko thinks he can play two sides off the middle, he might have tried to do just that. Just because Poroshenko was picked by Biden, does not make him Ukraine's George Washington. He might have appeared to be clean, but was not. Clearly, Zelenskyy was the leader that Ukraine needed (and needs for the immediate future). Zelenskyy probably has some capacity for corruption, but has not shown it yet, because he would not continue to get support from the West. Survival of his country and defeat of Russia are his top priorities. So far, he has done everything in his power to comply with requests from his weapons supplier nations, including the elimination of corruption within his government. What that translates to in peacetime, with little or no outside supervision, no one knows. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Zelenskyy is considered a hero in the West because he is clearly the best wartime democratic leader since Winston Churchill, and he is standing up to the Russian menace with very limited resources.

 

Nothing that I haven't said before in this thread. He has lost the swing voters. No point in further discussing it, though. There will be an election, and I will smartly pledge loyalty, never affection, to whomever wins. If it's Harris, as I predict, then I will work harder to persuade on how we should be making changes to defeat Russia directly and China indirectly. If it's Trump, then I will work harder to persuade good people such as yourself on the why it's important to do so.

 

I'd wait for confirmation on the UKR or US side. From what I saw yesterday, this info was only coming from Russian side.

 

You do know that, generally speaking, freedoms are reduced during times of major war on one's own territory, don't you? As in, when Abraham Lincoln suspended habeus corpus in 1861? Numerous people were detained without trial because they were suspected of participating in an armed rebellion. The point is that freedoms increase AFTER the war, not during it.

Lincoln and Taney’s great writ showdown | Constitution Center.

Habeas corpus - Wikipedia

 

I'm a Trump supporter and believe he will win. But I don't think Trump is going to let this war continue very long at all. What that means in terms of settlement, who knows exactly, but it's very difficult for me seeing a scenario whereby Russia returns the currently occupied territory to Ukraine, for a number of reasons:

1. Russia knows if that was a non-starter settlement-wise, NATO would have intervened directly by now. Allowing the war to be fought by proxy for going on 3 years is a sign that if Ukraine loses that territory forever, it's not the end of the world.

2. Most of these areas are ethnic Russian dominated as it is and have Russian citizenship. How do you force those people to repatriate and pledge their loyalty to a central government in Kyiv? It's unrealistic.

3. There have been times in history when conquest (as you call it) occurred and we not only survived it, but flourished in other areas that more than make up for the small loss. Vietnam is the obvious example. Communism expanded.. in fact it expanded into Eastern Europe as well. But communism failed in the end and the loss of South Vietnam hasn't led to anything other than saving more American lives by not being over there fighting the Communists anymore.

4. If you feel the message has to be sent to deter further excursions by the Russians, I think that's been accomplished by now.

There is no point in widening this war effort. We gain nothing by it. We can lose the battle, but win the war, as it relates to containing conquest and upholding national sovereignty. Hey, while we're at it, perhaps we can defend our own border instead of worrying about Ukraine's.