This information comes from the Twitter feed of pollster Tom Bonier (@tbonier on Twitter). If you think that the Democrats are aiming hurricanes at red states, it will be above your pay grade. This information is just about early trends and may be indicative of nothing. It's hard to compare it with 2020 during a pandemic and when one of the 2 major nominees was urging his voters to not do mail-in and early voting and make concrete conclusions about the final outcome. So with that being said, here are some items of note: Dems have a solid advantage in terms of party registration but less than 2020 More total ballots have been reported cast at this same point in 2020 Voter models believe that NPA votes are trending more Democratic than 2020 NPA voters are tending to be Persons of Color. The white share is down 6 points from 2020 at this point. The share of female voters is trending along the lines of 2022 not 2020 indicating the Dobbs case is likely still a factor. The female POC vote shows a 248% increase in the early vote vs. 2020. White women show a 146% increase. The GOP has been working to convert Election Day voters into early voters but any gains there have been usurped by likely Dem POC voters. Again, this election may be its own brand of unicorn but this is what the early voting is showing so far.
I posted a thread on early voting that no one seemed to care about, but the trend is national, Dems are returning their ballots at a higher rate than other groups around the country. Click on the mail voting tab for the rates. » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
Please, please, please let this be the indicator that Dems are coming out in force this year like we all hoped. A second Trump term is just too horrible to imagine.
This is the full Twitter thread. The hope for the Dems is that women and African Americans come out at high rates to offset the Republican registration gains. Early votes say it’s happening, but long way to go, so no guarantee at this point.
hey Welch. You ever gonna pay up? Is this you being a buckeye? An ohio thing to not pay bets? Pathetic.
lol so buckeye upgraded to premium so he could ignore me and I don’t see his posts. What an unbelievably lame move to Welch on a bet. pathetic.
back in early 2022 we were all in a thread talking about Trump and he was busting balls about how we were obsessed with Trump and how he’s irrelevant and we have to let it go. So I bet him $100 Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024 and he accepted. I have screen shots of the posts. I called him out on it was when Trump won the nomination and we exchanged some DMs about hjow he is a boomer and doesn’t know how to use PayPal, Venmo, Zelle etc. Said he wanted to send me a money order (lol). Gave him my address and nada. Called him out several times since and still nada.
I didn’t see this thread and put the twitter thread in the polls thread. It good to get some favorable trends but who really knows? Fingers crossed.
I don't think you have to upgrade to premium to place people on ignore, unless something has changed.
You don’t. I’m no longer a premium member and I’ve blocked a bunch of the usual goobers on this board.
Here, @BigCypressGator1981, I'll help. I don't know what's worse...welching on a bet or refusing to acknowledge being called out for it on multiple occasions. @buckeyegator: What do you have to say about this?: "back in early 2022 we were all in a thread talking about Trump and he was busting balls about how we were obsessed with Trump and how he’s irrelevant and we have to let it go. So I bet him $100 Trump would be the GOP nominee in 2024 and he accepted. I have screen shots of the posts. I called him out on it was when Trump won the nomination and we exchanged some DMs about hjow he is a boomer and doesn’t know how to use PayPal, Venmo, Zelle etc. Said he wanted to send me a money order (lol). Gave him my address and nada. Called him out several times since and still nada"
I guess it must be that with premium you can prevent people from seeing your posts (in addition to blocking yourself from seeing their posts).
QUOTE="BigCypressGator1981, post: 16965403, member: 26647"]hey Welch. You ever gonna pay up? Is this you being a buckeye? An ohio thing to not pay bets? Pathetic.[/QUOTE] I'll help a brother out. Hey Buckeye ... pay up!
Any updates? Surely with the number of times @buckeyegator has been called out for welching on your bet he has paid up or, at the very least, responded to you??
