Helene hit Florida's Gulf Coast last week

And, if you’re going to follow Mike, ya gotta follow his pal #OMGITSWICKS on Twitter and Facebook. The guy is hilarious with his Floridian and non-Floridian takes on things.

 

Also check out Americanwx.com
It's a board that consists of weather nerds and real meteorologists talking about storms. I get alot of info there.

 

Here's the current location of Jeff Masters' blog (formerly of wunderground and cat6 blog). Link is to the current posting of his new "Eye on the Storm" blog.

Tropical Storm Helene forms in the Western Caribbean » Yale Climate Connections

 

Thanks! His shorts are pretty funny. Just glad I got it on my flip phone!

 

Anybody up for a three hour tour?

 

Maybe will be moving too fast to crazy intensify, looking pretty ragged at this point...

 

Andrew did most of its damage due to tornados inside the eyewall. There were many examples in homestead where one neighborhood would be completely flattened and the the one next to it just had roof damage. That storm was such a unique setup, hope we never see one like that again. I remember the day it hit, I was in Cocoa at the time, and there wasn't a cloud in the sky and hot as hell. Completely different than the storms we are dealing with today.

 

HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

 

Something of note when you read the 2 pm advisory
[
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km). A commercial fishing vessel located near Isla
Mujeres, Mexico, recently reported a wind of 63 mph (102 km/h).
]
This is a 100 mile increase from earlier advisories.

 

it will be interesting to see what surge they see versus what that model project. If this puts 9' of surge in Tampa Bay, they are in worse trouble than I thought if a real storm ever hits them

 

Last I saw it could 15-18ft of surge in the bend. That could be catastrophic to some of those little coastal towns

 

I think this is definitely a real storm in terms of surge potential for Tampa. Huge windfield, running offshore, with winds pushing water N and NE directly into the bay.

Predicted vs actual is an interesting question. A lot of times it seems like the surge forecasts are higher than observed, but then occasionally you get a situation like Ivan near Pensacola, and then I understand why they need to warn of the worst potential outcome, even if that sometimes means they over-project. It's a tough call... over-estimate too many times and people no longer heed the warning. Don't estimate high enough and people die...

 

150 miles out? If it hit Tampa like Ian hit the Caloosahatchee Basin, like Katrina hit New Orleans, that kid of real storm. sorry for not defining my terms. it's going to happen, jsut a matter of when. if 150 mile out cat 3 does 9', how high does a cat 5 coming over the St Pete airport with a bad attitude? 20'?

 

I always look forward to seeing the results to compare to the models.

 

reminds me of Amelia Island

 

I think you're overlooking the significance of a TS windfield that (currently) extends ~250 miles from the CoC. That stacks a ridiculous amount of water, beyond what a local surface wind reading would suggest. And it's likely to grow/strengthen before it passes Tampa tomorrow. On top of that, you have the worst possible layout with a shallow bay, and a slow rolloff heading miles offshore.

Yes, a Cat5 hitting St Pete would certainly be catastrophic. A large Cat5 would be even worse.

 

My wife's family has a house on an barrier Island right by Carabelle. Eye is predicted to go right over it....

 

Getting consistent rain and the wind is picking up here in South Tampa.