The Root Cause of Florida’s Decline

James Franklin, UF head coach? Probably not

 

Interesting post.
Honest question: what are we searching now ( or soon) an is kiffin the answer or ist he just hyped again?
I thought BN was the answer. Everything sounded great. Experienced, young, came from an winning Programm, nice guy who was waiting for Florida, good in Evaluation of talent, good in recruiting and his former Team Put Up some impressive Numbers. Had a plan to bring us back again ( in 7 years), nice guy,clemson and bama History...
It looks like I was fooled again.

 

The root cause of UF's decline is hiring know it all coaches whose ego prevents them from making solid football decisions. Napier doesn't know offense or defense. He is an administrator. Muschamp didn't know offense. Mullen didn't know defense and was lazy. McElwain benefited from a weak Georgia program and was completely lost in the SEC.
With the money we are paying, hire a proven coach who knows how to recruit.
No more work in progress candidates.

 

The one question mark on BN from the beginning should have been, why did Clemson fire him?

 

Shane Matthews had the best take: there are few coaches around like Spurrier and Meyer--both had the "it" factor and were proven winners! So, Shane's take leads us to who? The coaches at Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Ole Miss immediately come to mind as hbc; also, Freeze at Auburn. The only possibility out of those: Lane Kiffen. He's quirky as hell, but he's an offensive genius. If we don't pursue him another school will. Lane, more than likely, could keep DJL et. al and current recruits; plus, as a proven winner, Lane would be able to poach Solomon Thomas, etc. There maybe a few offensive coordinators, such as Liam Coen to consider. He is an offensive genius, but I don't know if he's a hbc candidate or good recruiter. Lane Kiffen is the natural, offensive genius, great recruiter, and hbc. Supposedly, he's very interested in UF. The question mark on Lane is availability and UF administration (they don't like a loose cannon).

 

IMO our PTSD from Muschamp and McElwain prevented us from considering coaches like Steve Sarkisian, Kirby Smart, Dan Lanning, Brent Venables, Ryan Day, etc.

I am sure I will get backlash for saying this, but Muschamp was a really good hire. When you actually study probabilistic decision making, the best decision does not always pan out. It can be true that Muschamp was an excellent hiring decision. It can also be true that Muschamp did not pan out. Most people think if the result is bad, then the decision was bad. That is not always the case. Any list of top 5 coaches in college football will show that hiring an elite coordinator from an elite school often pans out in this day and age.

The data from the last 5 years shows that elite coaches today were the best coordinators for the best college football teams in college football 5 years ago. We never considered elite coordinators because we focused on a very small sample size in Muschamp rather than looking at all of the data across the college football landscape. Most Gator fans would revolt at the decision to hire someone with a resume that looked like Bob Stoops' resume in 2000.

Nabbing a top flight coordinator with some championship bling and current recruiting connections to top prospects in the country and the region is the ticket back to the top. See Dan Lanning, Steve Sarkisian, and Kirby Smart. The recruiting bump is even better if the schools have proximity. Athens and Tuscaloosa are 4.5 hours apart. Gainesville and Athens are 5.5 hours apart. Keep going for the top coordinator until you strike gold. We will eventually.

The issue with Napier, Kiffin, Mullen, etc is once you leave a top flight program for several years and go somewhere else for a while you do not have the recruiting connections to recruit at an elite level from the get go. You also don't have the connections to elite players currently on an elite roster who might hit the portal. That is what we need, and that is why Kiffin is not the answer.

The no brainer answer here is Glenn Schumann. He'll need a really good OC. So, open the bank to get him an elite OC, but Schumann has a chance to schematically be elite and recruit at an elite level. He has a much higher ceiling than Kiffin does.

 

As someone who never liked the Muschamp hire, I agree with you that, on paper, he was a very strong candidate and his hiring was completely justifiable. Something not working is not dispositive of that initial decision--this isn't a math problem with the correct formula always ending in the correct answer. It's art and science.

Similarly, you can't simply assume that a successful, high level coordinator will succeed as a head coach either. While there are many prominent examples of success, there are many more of mediocrity and failure. So I agree with you that coordinators shouldn't be excluded from consideration just because Muschamp didn't work out. But there is likewise no obvious increase in probability just because someone has been a successful coordinator without being a head coach first. That sort of confirmation bias notices the successes while downplaying or ignoring the contrary examples. And maybe people are right that some "life experience" actually being in charge either makes a difference in that coach's development and preparation, or gives additional information to potential employers. For example, would McElwain have been more successful here if he'd been hired before going to CSU? Would Mullen have worked out better had he been hired in 2011 or even 2010? How has Mike Bobo turned out as a head coach?

Speaking of Schumann, does it give any pause that this is his first season--and 3 games in--of him being Georgia's sole DC? To my knowledge he's always had an experienced co-DC until this past off-season. He seems like a hot, young, up and comer that Kirby trusts implicitly. All that's in his favor for getting a big offer soon. Do you jump on that, hoping to get on the ground floor to success, or do you wait until success has been achieved and then hire, hoping it's not too late?

And I'd say again that it's art and science and always about probabilities and not sure things.

 

It’s a crapshoot. How long will Kelly last at lsu. Is he proven? I’m not sure what proven is.

 

Hear, hear!

 

We all know why Clemson fired him but it should not have mattered because Napier should have known his job was to be head coach of the entire football program and hire the best offensive coordinator money could buy instead of trying to prove he was a good offensive coordinator, himself.

 

I'll admit it. I liked the Napier pick and I thought he was maybe the answer, too. And, I'm not one of those guys that expects a National Championship every year. I mean, we have three in like a hundred years of football. Winning them all is not a standard anyone can live up to. But, what I do expect is progress each and every year; that confirms that the program is being rebuilt. And, I do also expect player improvement as the season goes on; that proves that development and coaching at all levels is happening. And, you also have to win at home to keep the fans. But, we're not seeing any of that. I'm now in agreement with all those Gator fans who say it's the offensive play calling and the defensive scheme. Every first down play we see on offense is a one or two yard run between the guards (who can't ever seem to create a hole). Every third down QB scramble when we're on defense results in completed passes to wide open receivers.

I'm also not personally on the Kiffy-bus, though. He is a great offensive coordinator, but, he's a jerk of a human and I don't know if he can sustain any sort of defense over time. I don't think he will represent the university well as a head coach. He blew up at USC, he left Tennessee in a lurch, he got shuffled out of Alabama on bad terms, and, he seemed a little too close to the Co-eds in Fort Lauderdale. He would definitely score some points offensively and bring a more exciting air game (if Lagway stayed). But, I'm obviously in the minority and what I say doesn't matter (macht nichts?). So, buckle your seat belt and enjoy the ride. But, don't expect a new coach until the season's over.

 

That's what we get for cheap-ing out on a head ball coaches... year after year.

 

Actually “Running Down A Dream” would be a great change while we’re struggling. Go back to the other song after we win another SEC Championship

 

The question about champ at the time should be: why didn’t Saban fire him? He was not with saban any more.

the same question for Napier why did Clemson fire him?

 

No more rednecks from Georgia. No thanks.

 

Right now? Free Fallin'

 

Saban didn't fire him. He was not a coordinator in Miami. He left to take a college Coordinator job and then was poached by UTex to be their DC and after a bit Head Coach in waiting (when that was a thing).

 

The issue seems to stem from the “administration.” Given the turnover of multiple Athletic Directors & Presidents during this time, it appears the problem extends up to the Board of Trustees.

• UF has been repeatedly behind the curve on: "shirting" (grey/blue/green), facilities, expanded staffing/analysts, the Portal & NIL.
• Meanwhile UF guaranteed a 4-year scholarship for football players, reducing turnover of players who weren't a good fit.
• UF sent out a letter implying that the focus would be on the all-sports trophy.
• All of the coaches prior to Napier complained about UF's commitment to football due to being behind the curve.
• Four of the last five UF coaches have purposely imploded - Meyer (esophageal spasms), McElwain (death threats), Mullen (too many to mention), & Napier (basement dwellers). Muschamp just exploded .

 

I do really think that Foley (or maybe his bosses were setting the agenda) was chasing Stanford and that was the top goal along with adding Women's sports to stay ahead of the Title 9 curve. I think the mindset was that if Football had to sacrifice a little bit then that was the cost of the chase. After all it is called the Director's Cup and who among us isn't aware of the size of Foley's ego.

The problem, in part, is that Stanford fields a lot more sports teams than UF (and can afford to) and can toss out more of the sports that might not be doing as well in the standings other than the required sports.