You don’t seem to understand how the probability model works or what it is saying. There’s no “normal” in this election
Yes, I know Nate Silver is currently giving Donald Trump a 58% chance of winning the electoral college, but he doesn't really mean it. Cuz that's what Nate does. He just says shit like this to confuse us all.
This shows you really don’t understand what the model is saying. Her polling has gotten better, but the model has decreased probabilities due to - the model is expecting an even bigger post convention bounce - RFK getting out and endorsing Trump made a difference. - She’s roughly neck and neck with Trump in PA, which is a pivotal state. Silver will be the first to admit that given Harris is a new and sudden late entrant into the race, not all aspects of the model may be applicable. I think she got a lot of her bump before the convention. He says 58/42 in terms of model probabilities is really close. It doesn’t take much to flip it. Trump beat Hillary with a probability in the 30’s I think. What will determine the election is future events. Does Kamala bomb the debates or interviews. Does Trump do something even more ridiculous than usual. What happens with the economy. Trump is sentenced in NY on 9/18. At this point I’d give the edge to Kamala but that could change in a minute based upon events.
Gee, how convenient. “That could change in a minute.” She clearly doesn’t have the edge. Arguing that Silver might get it wrong is fine. He has certainly been wrong before. But arguing that he secretly believes Kamala has the edge right now is delusional. It’s his model and his model is saying Trump has a higher likelihood of winning at this moment in time. If he thought it was wrong, he would simply adjust his model. Further, all you have to do is read his words about Kamala’s electoral college chances shriveling up to just one unlikely pathway. That doesn’t sound like he thinks she’s winning right now.
Honesty is tough for both sides on this forum. Everyone knows why Harris is doing interviews. It's not hard to understand. She's playing 4 corners and trying to run the clock out because her side thinks she has the lead. Trump's side just keeps throwing him out there to say dumb shit. We are again stuck with 2 awful candidates, one who the D's are afraid will say something stupid and the R's who already know their candidate will say something stupid and both sides don't care. Good times...
If running out the clock is truly the strategy of Team Kamala because they think she’s ahead, that is akin to trying to run out the clock in a football game where you have a one point lead and it’s the midway through the 3rd quarter. It is a very bizarre strategy. Especially when nobody is really saying she is ahead. Dead heat is what I am seeing most. So if this is the strategy, she’s going to be landslided in November just as any team would who deployed that strategy in the 3rd quarter of a football game up by a point.
Also, not a small thing: Silver now has Trump with a 41% chance of winning the popular vote. He would be the first GOP candidate to do that in 20 years and that would make for an electoral landslide. And as I’ve been saying, I think that’s about right. You really need to see Harris with a consistent average of a 2.5% lead in polls to assume she’s going to win the popular vote. That is roughly what the polling bias has erred with the last two Trump elections.
I'm not saying it's right, only saying that's what they are doing. They look to be banking on Trump saying something dumb(good odds) and keeping her to a script only. Bold move Cotton...
What exactly has Harris accomplished in her “day job” the last four years? Harris is the “anyone but Trump” candidate and the Democrats are clearly shielding her from the press. That is the correct thing to do because as clueless as Trump is, Harris is a terrible speaker and communicator and can easily blow an election that is hers to win.
I believe the “no interviews” policy is simply an attempt to keep the “kackling” problem out of public view. The scarecrow is just an irreversible mess.
Says someone who is supporter of the candidate who praises the late great Hannibal Lecter and obsessed with windmills, toilet, sharks and battery powered boats.
I don't believe the laugh is why they are hiding Harris. But, you seem to be a straight shooter, why do you think the D's aren't having Harris do any interviews(save the 1 softball interview)?
I can only guess, but my best guess is that they believe that voting is determined more by emotions and vibes than policy specifics and that their vibes are good right now. Therefore an interview where Kamala is challenged to give specifics on tax rates or border policies would represent more downside than upside. As someone less interested in vibes, I hope that they are wrong and have to give into some tough questions sooner or later. The debate will be a good start, hopefully.
Oh I should add one more possibility: since Kamala was thrust into the candidacy rather suddenly, it’s possible that her team is still generating her platform, and she hasn’t yet had many specifics to give. An interview where she repeatedly answers “we’re still working on that” would be problematic.
It's a risk/reward calculation for the Harris camp. Higher risk that Harris says something in an interview that the Trump camp can use against her than any bump she might get in the polls. Besides, Harris still has the momentum. If things change post-debate, I'm sure Harris' camp will alter course. If Harris wins the debate handily, then why change?
I can accept that. I think they are more scared of what she will say off script but that's just me. Might actually watch a debate since it will be the only one.
I don't think I'd call it "bold." Bold would be putting her chin out there and winning the argument on the merits. I think the strategy is fear-induced and likely not completely her idea. I don't think the people around her believe in her. A lot of these same people were talking about replacing her on Biden's ticket just a few months ago. On Trump saying something dumb, I don't agree those odds are good for him saying something consequential enough to harm his candidacy. Trump has been solid down the stretch in the two previous elections, erasing hefty leads by Hillary and Biden by Election Day. It's more likely that he will gain than fall backwards, which is why this strategy of running the clock out is deeply flawed and bizarre. I think it reflects a staff that doesn't think too highly of her.
