Bart Torvik - Baketball Computer Geek

I’m hoping we are better than a nine seed some tournament time. But it’s good to be safely inside the preseason bubble these days too.

 

Lots of fascinating snippets in there:

• Still ain't buyin' the Auburn love
• FSU...hahaha
• Kudos to Ques for being on the radar like that, hope it happens for him
• I'm ok with Kugel having a decent season but hope he "brings back memories" in our game, so to speak

 

I love Torvik’s stuff, which is now officially part of the tournament selection criteria, IIRC. But its predictive quality is way, way off. He doesn’t even list Klavzar. No way Brown plays more than Aberdeen, Richard more than Martin, Alexis more than Haugh and Chinyelu. And I don’t see a world in which Richard scores more than both Martin and Condon.

On teams, I would have Bama much higher and Tennessee lower. And I will be shocked if, in year 3 with this many returnees, we are a 9-seed.

 

What jumps out is the overall strength of the SEC in this ranking. The worst team in the conference is listed as the #75 team in the country. Which is a bubble team, albeit on the wrong side of the bubble. The Gators, at #36, would be a 9-seed in the NCAAT, the same as they would be for the SEC tournament. Torvik's prediction would have 11 teams in the NCAAT, and several more right on the bubble.
However, these preseason polls, whether human, computer, or space alien, have little bearing on reality.

 

This looks off. Condon 10 ppg? Gators #36 and Kentucky with a new coach and system #23?

 

UK is always loaded with talent. This season is no exception, and they've now got a better coach.
What's the issue with Condon at 10 ppg? Our starting 5 that won 2 national championships all averaged right around 10 points each. Balance is a good thing.

 

More so that he averaged 8 pts in 20 minutes a game last year as freshman who was a little loose with the ball, struggled to finish some of his post moves around the rim (only 50% from 2), and was bad from the line to start the season (62% in non conference play vs. 73% in conference play). If his usage rate gets up in Samuel's range (23.5 against Condon's 19.6), in conjunction with more minutes and hopefully more consistency finishing plays in the paint and hitting his free throws, he should easily be in that 12-14 ppg range. The staff apparently has a ton of confidence that he makes a huge jump, and we've seen that they aren't afraid to run things through the post (with Samuel, Castleton, and even Massalski back at SF).

 

@rserina pretty much summed it up above. I just think he's better than 10 ppg, and he's also now going to be our primary front court scoring option. You figure he'd be good for 13-15 ppg unless he starts shooting bricks or the guards ball hog.

 

I remember watching a game during the David Lee/Walsh/Roberson era where Matt and Peep were taking too many shots early in the shot clock during the first half and I told my wife that David Lee would at least get a touch for the first ten second half possessions. And he did. I am sure that BD got in their ears at halftime.

 

David Lee was easily the best player on that team.

 

IIRC David was the last pick of the first round in the NBA draft and drafted by the Knicks. Also IIRC Spike Lee was not happy with the pick. I would hope that he changed his mind over time.

 

I think this will prove quite inaccurate.

 

His algorithm understandably doesn’t really get clicking until the games get played

 

None of them do. Preseason and early season rankings and projections are all a crapshoot. Never understood why people get worked up about them.

 

per usual with these "experts"

 

It’s just a statistical model, not a prediction or subjective analysis. As someone else said, it’s based on statistical input, and we don’t have sufficient data yet for this season. But Torvik’s model does a great job of adjusting for pace and competition and is very helpful measuring where teams are at as the season progresses. I think his model nailed the sweet 16 last year, and always had Bama higher than other ratings.

 

I could not care less about what NBA fans think of their draft picks. Chicago Bulls fans were loudly booing the waste of a selection in zero-talent Joakim Noah. They absolutely loved him halfway through the season though.

 

I do agree that at about the midway point in the season, Torvik's is probably the closest to reality.