PCE Increases Modestly in June

What trades have you made to back up no rate cuts? Your view is clearly the minority and I would love to short some mortgage backed securities in 2006 (in 2024 of course).

 

As a reminder, you predicted that the stock market would be 20,000 right now. It is currently above 40,000. That is not just a little miss. So why do you think you have this amazing ability to predict the market?

 

You are clueless and just saying stuff you want very badly to be true (but isn't). Trump and Biden are neck and neck in market gains at this point in their term.

 

70% 25 bpt cut in Sept based on the trend.

Tech valuations have been lofty and running hard which is why we had the big sell off and partial rotation off the high fliers recently. That seems to be a signal that people are rotating to areas which will now respond positively to rate cuts.

 

That’s interesting, one would have thought Biden would be blowing away Trump’s gains based of what I see here posted.

 

Nothing but bad? Functionally 0 unemployment, stock market at all time highs, less inflation than the other G7 countries, GDP increasing at historical rates, etc. Where do you come up with this stuff?

 

Remind us when it was that Biden gifted corporations a 40% tax cut again?

 

Since you decided to go there.

FTR many taxpayers got nice taxes cuts too, not just those evil corporations. Tax cuts aren’t “gifts” they allow people and companies to keep more of the money they earn, BTW all those cuts have still been going on under Biden so if you are suggesting that’s why Trump’s economy was what is was because of those cuts then the same should go for Biden’s.

While your on it what was the Federal Budget under Trump pre Covid, with Covid and then under Biden.

 

Trump's first three years were identical in terms of economic gains as Obama's last six years. Remember, Trump promised 5% growth. And delivered about 2.6%, whereas Obama averaged 2.5%.

COVID turned things on its head. And most people predicted a recession, which is not uncommon after a big inflationary period. But it looks like we're going to nail a soft landing and avoid the recession. That's impressive.

And now, all indicators are pointing to a rate cut in September. Inflation is under 3 and unemployment is just over 4. And the markets are responding accordingly.

 

I read that it was 2.6, up from 2.5. Will have to confirm.

Regardless it is still at least 25% above the target. The Fed is under intense pressure to cut, and I think they will unfortunately, bow to that pressure. If they do cut in 3Q, I’m afraid given all the other factors that we will see a resurgence in inflation by the end of 2Q 2025.

 

lol … it’s not 25% above target … it’s 0.5% above target…. It’s already expressed as a percent increase… Learn how math works when you get a chance….

 

Nonsense. The current Fed rate is 5.5% with inflation at 3%. The maximum Fed rate under Trump was 2.5% around the same time inflation hit 2.9% in 2018.

 

It is hilarious how you think 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline affected pricing in such a substantial manner. We use 374 million gallons of gas....a day. And that is just in this country while pricing is global (if gas is more expensive elsewhere, a producer will send it there until prices equalize). But you are convinced a million gallons, enough to last for a whole 4 minutes, made some giant, observable effect on pricing.

 

I'm suggesting that corporate gifts are exactly what they are.

"Known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the law has benefitted corporations and the wealthy while doing little or nothing for working families, according to a new analysis from the Economic Policy Institute and the Center for Popular Democracy.
One of the largest tax overhauls in half a century, the Trump tax law “has failed to boost American workers’ wages or to deliver broad prosperity for low-income communities or communities of color,” the paper’s authors write.
Among other findings, the new analysis suggests that the law:

• Has had no discernible impact on wages for working people;
• Has decisively failed to spur business investment;
• Has caused corporate tax revenues to plummet;
• Has caused corporate stock buybacks to surge;
• Has fueled income inequality and exacerbated racial wealth divides."

 

We already did this. You claimed the effect was only in the NE, and we provided data showing that the NE and the nation as a whole both moved the same amount.

 

Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Meanwhile, in the real world, pricing was affected by far more substantial changes in quantity supplied and quantity demanded.