It is not a question of intention. China is clearly on the record regarding their ambitions. They intend to take Taiwan by force if they have to. They have said as much. The question is when. Many wars are started when people least expect them. We did not have much notice that Putin was going to invade Ukraine when he did. We did not have much notice when Pearl Harbor was bombed. China knows they are not at war with just the US military, but also American democracy itself. They want to break the will of the populace and sow division here. An invasion of Taiwan right now with Biden as POTUS would be a powder keg of drama here, but the ripple effect of a decision has many layers to it. It is hard to know the mind of a communist dictator.
It's been that way for decades. My wife's entire life has included a China shadow hovering over Taiwan. Only my mother and stepmother continually warn us that she needs to "be careful" when visiting home. I know where they get their info, but again . . . what is the source of yours?
To be clear I am not claiming any inside info or source that China is going to attack Taiwan within a specific timeframe. I am simply saying that is the one event that could be the catalyst for the 25th amendment being exercised before Biden leaves office. So, the statement that it would never happen is not necessarily true IMO.
Nobody made a statement that it would never happen. I'm confounded, though, as to why you can't/won't answer a simple question.
Here you go: xi quotes on taiwan - Search (bing.com) China will never renounce right to use force over Taiwan, Xi says | Reuters Chinese military builds dummy American aircraft carrier, warships | CNN China Trains to Simulate Attacks Against US Fighter Jets Using Mockups in the Xinjiang Desert (armyrecognition.com) There is also the interpretation of actions. China regularly rehearses and practices invasion and blockade drills around Taiwan. They are also bullying the Phillippines in the South China Sea, and getting more aggressive with their gray zone tactics every day, which increasingly create the possibility of a military escalation. We are not threatening to attack Taiwan or China. They are doing these things to practice for a war they intend to start when the time is right.
So you ran out and found some sources, but my question was what was YOUR source. You expect me to believe that you're a regular reader of Reuters & CNN?
I read about China and the Asia Pacific military situation regularly from lots of sources. I don't keep track of the sources like I am writing an academic research paper for a college professor, but it is an opinion I have formed through the intake of lots of articles and videos I have seen relating to the topic over several years. The problem with Taiwan is they are a free democracy with a higher GDP per capita than China. Since they are so close and people travel back and forth between the two countries, it is a sore spot for the communist regime in China. It is an offense to the CCP that a more prosperous western democracy with a higher standard of living sits right on their doorstep. It is an offense that they accomplished what they did in the tech sector without resorting to massive generational theft like China has. They also hold the bulk of the supply of the world's most advanced and important computer chips, which would give them a huge economic and military advantage if they were able to acquire them. It is also in their constitution that Taiwan is part of China. So, China is determined to take Taiwan at some point. The legitimacy of Xi's regime and his place in history as superior to Mao depends on his ability to do what Mao was not able to do: reunite China. Xi is old, much like Putin is old. Just like Putin he has ambition. He will not live forever. There is only so much time to cement his place as China's greatest supreme leader. The window of the Biden presidency is closing, and he might view that as one of his best chances to fulfill his ambitions.
Back to the original premise: the VCU Wilder poll. Trump's 2024 summer percentage is listed at 39%. His December 2023 percentage was 39%. Exactly the same. So yes, the latest poll shows Biden's and all other candidate support in flux, but does not indicate any movement toward Trump. And for further perspective, Trump's final 2020 voter tally in Virginia was 44%, in a losing effort to Biden's 49%. The math ain't mathing.
And if China does invade Taiwan a President Trump will back Taiwan the way that he has been supporting the backing of Ukraine or in other words he would pull a full on Neville Chamberlain and if nothing else Trump's position with respect to Ukraine would encourage Xi to invade Taiwan.
Two things you didn't consider: 1. Back in December 2023, the poll was head-to-head, not an all-candidates ballot like July 2024. Introducing the 5 on the ballot makes a difference. 2. The pollster comments in the poll that there has been a shift to Trump over the last 6 months. It has been a 6% swing for Trump from being down to being up. I have no idea what you are trying to prove with the Virginia vote from 2020 that will soon be 4 years old. What math isn't adding up?
Going strictly from the latest Wilder poll, Trump was at 39%. True, that's up from before. But he was still only at 39%. That leaves a substantial not-for-Trump vote recorded with the pollsters. 39% does not win Presidential elections, generally.
Considering a republican hasn't won in Virginia since 2000, I'll take it. The rub for Biden which might soon be over this weekend is his approval rating matches his polling number at 36%.
Don’t waste your valuable time. If Biden is trailing (even by a hair) in Virginia and it does appear that’s the case, then he has no prayer in PA, MI and WI. This is likely why people like Schumer, Pelosi and Jeffries are telling Biden he can’t win.
