What are the odds…..for us upsetting Alabama on Wednesday? (watch teaser titles, please)

According to Kenpom, Alabama is the #1 Offensive-Efficiency team in college basketball while Florida has #9 Off-Eff. The two teams have similar defensive efficiencies much like Kentucky's: UF (91 - defE), AL (73 - defE), UK (82 - defE). So, this game could be another shoot-out game similar to the UF-Kentucky games if Florida continues to perform offensively as well.

However, based on the two Auburn-Alabama results (79-75 AL-Win, 81-99 AL-Loss), I think that Florida can be competitive and maybe even pull out the win if the Gators' defense/rebounding/3-pt-defense can hold Alabama into the 70s/80s range.

Many of Alabama's losses have come when teams have held the Tide to under 81/82 points:
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81-99 L to Auburn (projected 5 seed)
71-99 L to Tenn (projected 2 seed)
74-87 L to Arizona (projected #1 NCAA seed)
82-85 L to Creighton (projected 4 seed)
86-92 L to Purdue (projected #1 NCAA seed)
77-85 L to Clemson (projected 6 seed)
81-92 L to Ohio St (recently had defeated #1 Purdue)
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78-75 W over Vandy
74-47 W over South Carolina (projected 6 seed)
82-74 W over Miss St (projected 10 seed)
79-75 W over Auburn

According to CBS, Florida is projected as an 8-seed.

This Alabama-Florida game on the road is a terrific opportunity for the Gators to not only compete for the regular SEC season title but also to secure an even higher NCAA bid!
2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball
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In contrast, there doesn't seem to be any kind of pattern to the Florida losses. Florida's losses have come from the range(s) (60s, 70s, 80s, & 90s):

70-73 L to Virginia (projected #10 seed)
91-95 L to Baylor (projected #3 seed)
71-82 L to Wake Forrest
85-87 L to Kentucky (projected #6 seed)
85-103 L to Ole Miss (projected #10 seed)
66-85 L to Tennessee (projected #2 seed)
66-67 L to Texas AM (projected #11 seed, play-in game)

Maybe Florda is due for another loss when the gators have scored in the 90s since there are two of such losses in the 60s, 70s, & 80s. I hate to predict somthing like that, lol.
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I don't know what the chances are, and we will probably lose, but if we win, we will be 1 game out of 1st place in the SEC.

 

I was joking.

 

7.5 is the line, about 2 points higher than I thought but I'd expect it to drop, 10-11 was laughable though

 

One of the problems Bama had earlier in the season was turnovers. And they lost games because of it.

Because they have a good head coach, they've learned and improved from this issue.

However........I truly believe if we play them very physically - like we did Auburn - that is something we could exploit.

Physical defense, 3 point defense, our bigs in the paint fighting/rebounds, making our FT's, and us taking care of the ball.....that gives us a chance, IMHO.

 

ESPN has us at a 13.5% chance

 

That doesn’t make sense to me. Conventional is not 2 forwards, 3 guards. A conventional lineup is PG, SG, SF, PF, C.

 

Here's the lineup I'd like to see:

Condon
Samuel
Kugel
Clayton Jr.
Pullin

For one, I hear what CTG is saying about trying to use any physical/rebounding advantage we might have. I'd also like to see what Richard brings as the sixth man. Maybe I'm crazy and we need his shooting, but it's often lots or little with him. Maybe we start Kugel in hopes of a higher athletic/defensive ceiling. Worth a try?

 

Nah. Now is not the time to get cute. You start with the group that started each game that produced a 7-of-8 run of SEC wins.

 

We had that issue too, and because we have a good HC, we’ve improved also?

 

Yes.

 

Golden suggested after the Georgia win in Athens, that the win takes the pressure off and that we can play much looser tonight

I agree that our chance of winning is somewhere just short of 20%

 

Already are by certain bracketology sites.
A win here gets us on the 6 line in their formulas, maybe higher.

 

The places I looked have the line at 8.5 points.

I guess I should stay away from Vegas.

 

Eric Fawcett suggested a smaller lineup would be a good idea against Bama in lieu of 2 bigs as we normally play.

 

Indeed, a win tonight puts UF in the THICK of the SEC regular season title!
Lets go Gators.

 

A win tonight followed by 3 - 4 more in the regular season should put UF in great shape!
Heck, I am on a mission to reminding folks that with a win tonight, UF is in a position to WIN the SEC regular season title.

The way our kids are playing.....7 of the last 8 (and the one loss by 1 point) I think it's resonable to consider our kids good enough to take the big regular season prize!

Go UF !!!