Interesting Frontcourt Data from Eric

Before reading Eric's work . . . I like it. Samuel was so good to start the season and has dropped off in recent games. Would love to see what he brings off the bench. Condon deserves to start right now. GREAT idea to avoid the two freshmen together. Would be fun to see Samuel & Haugh together after Mich & Condon do their thing.
I agree with your last statement. Like all the guys and want to see them earn their time on the court. Now let's please get our sports car rev'd up (hello, Mr. Kugel) and our shooter (hello Mr. Richard) get back to his ways so the bigs can more easily go to work.

 

Condo is just one letter from Condon

can't we give this fella's family the honor of having their name respected?

as far as the team, something's gotta give. this team is far too talented to start 0-3 in the SEC, the lineups and minutes are clearly being mangled.

 

Analytics, dang. It makes sense that Condon should be starting. 15 rebounds against Ole Miss is showing he is bringing it every night. Best rebounding freshman maybe ever, not to walk on Neil Walks records. If he and Handlogten work together better offensively, which surprised me, then of course we need better production from our bigs on offense for sure. Samuel and Haugh being together surprised me also. Ok coach, Eric has spoken!

 

Have to hope coach already has this info

 

Using Q3 & better games (5-5), here are the best 5-man lineups with each combo of bigs. I tried for at least 15 possessions per lineup, but two sets had few possessions so I had to go to the next highest number (if you're into statistics, as a rule of thumb you'd like to have 30 possessions to approximate a normal distribution). Guard/wing combo counts: Pullin - 5, Richard - 5, Clayton - 4, Kugel - 4.

 

Geez, I have been a big fan all year. I yell Alex to my tv all the time. Alex Condon, aka Condo, shows we appreciate him and love seeing him on the floor. 11 pts and fifteen rebounds against a good Ole Miss team as a freshman is going to get him on the all SEC freshman team. Our team needs the rebounds but we need more scoring from our bigs. I hope the green light for him shooting threes when open is there. He has been our best shooting big all year but it seems we only want him to focus on rebounding and defense. I feel the rest of our games we are at war and it is hard to get open looks, but Alex has been passing them up to see someone force a highly contested shot. I hope coach is telling him, if you are open, light it up! He is only going to get bigger, stronger and become a better scorer. I’d prefer him shooting an open three than teammates forcing highly contested shots, we might find him hitting a decent clip which is better than a multiple times denied points from hero ball. Just my thoughts over the last couple of weeks.

 

This is our best & our most used "small ball" lineups.

 

Here are our most often used combos.

 

When looking at these per possession stats, remember that an offensive rebound continues a possession. So, combos that get these rebounds should have a higher Off Rtg & thus probably a higher Net Rtg.

 

'Cause we got a little ol' Condon
Rockin' through the game
Yeah, we got a little ol' Condon
Ain't that a beautiful surname?
Come on and play with Condon
Ain't nothin' gonna end his spree
We gonna roll with f*****' Condon
'Cross the SEC

 

Just to confirm, is the "Net rtg" a score? Iow - is it a figure that you want to be high? If yes, it doesn't appear that we are playing our best lineups.

 

Points per possession adjusted to 100 possessions. Net Rtg = adjusted offensive points per possession - adjusted defensive points per possession, so yes higher net is better. fwiw UF is #15 in possessions/game at 77.1. Other factors like fouls, injuries & conditioning would affect the combos & how much they're played. Also variation would be a big factor. "Kill Shots", a 10-0 run, is a big predictor of success. iirc this is one that CTG uses. From Evan Miya:

 

I wonder if Golden is looking at the same numbers

 

I don't doubt that he does see this type of data. If it were me, I'd be running lineup simulations versus the expected opponent in addition to this stuff. Overall I'm sure he uses practice evaluations and the overall direction for how he wants the program to evolve in his decisions.

 

Thanks! Ok, one more question: What is a kill shot?

 

A 10-0 run. The question for me is whether good offense (which we have) or good defense leads to more of these runs. I don't recall getting many under CMW, but I don't think we're doing well in this metric this year either.

 

Thanks again. I just needed to read more carefully.

 

Condo rules.