This report from them shows only 10.5k net jobs added instead of 1.1 million that was reported. How is this even possible and why does it take this long to figure out.
It’s sad that this can happen. I tend to side on government doesn’t cook the books but oddly this comes up right after elections.
This happens all the time, even after the second revision the average variance from reality is usually decent sized. Good news is that it might slow the fed down though.
I will say the Philly Fed is based on data after the fact and in hindsight. It’s why they have revisions. It just blows me away it’s off by over a million.
Yeah this one is big no doubt. Here is an article from 2014 where in two months they revised it by about 300k. Why Today’s Miserable Job Numbers Are Probably Wrong In 2019 they revised it down 500k. Here's Why The Prior Jobs Report Numbers Were Wrong By Over Half A Million the issue is their survey methodology, it’s isn’t nearly expansive enough to be accurate. And this year was particularly unique with the upheaval in the market at the end of covid.
It should be noted that this is only the third quarter in which they have calculated this value. We will see if the metric is considered accurate in the future. It should also be noted that the first estimate Q4 2021 underestimated jobs by ~300K, the Q1 said it was pretty close to accurate (but a slight revision upward), and then this result. We will see how accurate it is in March.
The Philly Fed's employment data is based on surveys of employers, and there is a lag between when employers report their employment figures and when the data is released. This lag can allow for revisions to the data, as new information comes in. In the realm of B2B data building, understanding and accounting for such lags is crucial for businesses relying on accurate and up-to-date information for strategic decision-making and market analysis.
Not sure whether anyone has noticed that the original post in this thread is almost a year old. The report of the Philadelphia Fed upon which this thread is based is dated December 11, 2022. I'm sure that the data has been revised at least once and probably multiple times since the original release.
