I think evacuation is a great plan. I was questioning whether remaining in the same county was a sufficient distance from the hurricane's effects. Depends on the county, I guess.
...IDALIA NOW A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 85.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 23.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft. Florida Keys...1-2 ft
Both these models, which are regional hurricane models, have the storm making landfall further north in the bend. Around St Mark's Wildlife Refuge.
..NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDALIA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.8W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
Yes I understood. This I was meant too. We were going to evacuate to a friend’s house in inland Hillsborough. We only changed our plan to come to the east coast when the projection was for a major hurricane. Still his house is a lot better of an option than many. Though if someone is really needing a place, the county shelters seem to be even safer.
I think you've missed some info. If you look at the historic track since it was formed as a depression, it actually went south, south east, and then east usually at around 1-3 mph for the first 36 hours as it was slowly forming. It probably moved southward of its original position by 100 miles. It didn't start moving north until yesterday morning. It's moving at 14 now and will pick up quicker by midday today. The center is pretty equal with the keys now. It's doing exactly as predicted.
Starting to look like it may do a loop de loop and come hit the Carolinas again possibly after re-gaining some strength.
Certainly a lot of uncertainty out that far... but something to watch. Would really suck for Florida for it to come back and smack them again.
Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Ivan, which circled back around, re-developed and went to Louisiana. Meteorological history of Hurricane Ivan - Wikipedia
Just saw an interview with DeSantis in which he falsely claimed (paraphrased) that climate change has not been a factor because there have been no more major hurricanes in the past 50 years than in the previous 50 years. He's ignoring the fact that we've had 4 hurricanes with landfall wind speeds exceeding 149 mph in the past 5 years. And they don't include Irma, another major hurricane.
IDALIA STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 84.8W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 24.6N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.5N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 29.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 31.8N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0000Z 34.1N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 33.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 32.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
Because there are so few hurricanes each year, statistically speaking, we need another couple decades before we could say that the observed increase is statistically significant.
Tornado warning in Collier County. Another issue for folks to be on the lookout for during this event.
Not a statistician but after only eight cat five storms in 150 years followed by four in just the last five years seems significant. Wonder if there's historical data for water temperature in the Gulf. Doubt it's ever been hotter than it is now.
