500K jobs in June. Double expectations! This is Joes economy and I’m so glad I’m living in it. Tip of the hat to Joe! https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/adp-jobs-report-private-sector-added-497000-workers-in-june.html
I'm guessing that's a rethorical statement, but just in case: It's because this likely means continued rate hikes from the fed - as they are under the belief that inflation cannot be controlled with such a robust labor market. Higher rates are bad for business. In other words, only higher unemployment will ease demand and therefore inflationary pressure. Traditionally speaking, they're not wrong, but so much of today's inflation is due to an unprecedented type of supply disruption. The fed can't fix supply though. When all you have is a hammer....
What seems to even more directly contradict that narrative is this specific nugget: Aren't small businesses usually the ones that suffer most in a recession?
Despite United's recent troubles, the July 4 weekend saw a record number of airline passengers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/07/03/july4-holiday-travel-united-airlines/
Most likely a soft landing. We were in a mature economy before the pandemic. Consistent 2% to 3% quarterly growth with very little that could derail it. Trump tried to pump money into the economy to get his 5% growth, and the result? Consistent 2% to 3% growth. The pandemic was something that could derail the mature economy, and did, for sure. One question was post pandemic, what would the economy look like? If we could potentially get back quickly to a mature economy, we'd potentially avoid the recession, and get back to 2% to 3% quarterly growth. This is what looks like to be happening in my opinion. I hope the Fed doesn't raise any more rates. If we're in a mature economy again, no reason to make any changes. The supply-side inflationary issues are all but resolved, and inflation indicators are also returning closer to pre-pandemic numbers.
I think the Fed said they pretty much were going to continue raise rates after taking a pause last meeting. Maybe something like 0.25% every other meeting is their plan, that's my guess for now.
54 year low? News: Unemployment is at its Lowest Level in 54 years Today, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly Jobs Report which shows the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.4% with more than a half million jobs created in January and 800,000 manufacturing jobs created in the last two years. “President Biden’s economic plan is working,” said Commerce Secretary Raimondo. “When President Biden took office, the unemployment rate was 6.3%. Today, it is just 3.4%. That’s the lowest in 54 years.” Also last month, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 2.9% for the last quarter of 2022 and that real wages were higher last month than they were seven months ago. “Last quarter, we experienced strong growth in GDP, consumer spending, and disposable income,” said Raimondo. “We have more work to do, but we’re building a strong economy that works for all Americans.”
.... The headline one day later is "Payrolls rise less than expected" ... the government's BLS report comes in at 209,000 ... a day after the private ADP report said almost 500,000 ... quite a discrepancy. Question is, will the market love the bad news ... Jobs report June 2023: (cnbc.com)
The futures just updated for me after the 15 minute delay they impose, they did switch from negative to positive ... so predictable ...
